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Optimism is rising in SA agriculture, but the path ahead remains concerning.
Last week, the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) released the third-quarter results of the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI), a sentiment indicator for the sector. The third-quarter reading was positive, with the ACI up 8 points from the second quarter to 53.
The current ACI level indicates that South African agribusinesses are optimistic about business conditions. This quarter, optimism was strongest among respondents in the financial services sector, grain traders, input suppliers, and the feed industry. Meanwhile, the other respondents maintained their views from the last quarter.
This reading is unsurprising and reflects a sector ending a period of abundance, with ample harvests of grain, oilseed, fruits, and vegetables. Even the second-quarter export figures show the large harvest has been highly beneficial. For example, in the first half of 2026, South Africa’s agricultural exports amounted to US$7.8 billion, up 11% from the first half of 2025.
But this optimism should not be read as a reflection of the sector’s outlook. There remain risks going into the 2026-27 season. Higher input costs on the back of the U.S.-Iran war, combined with a potential El Niño-induced drought, remain farmers' major concerns.
In fact, respondents to the ACI survey highlighted these risks and flagged export risks because of rising geopolitical tensions worldwide. Therefore, the optimism we observe in the sector reflects current conditions, but the path ahead remains uncertain.
-wandile
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