SA agriculture GDP

The Agbiz Agribusiness Research desk, headed by economist Wandile Sihlobo, offers role players access to relevant and up to date agricultural economic insights. Read latest and previous updates:

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09/03 SA agricultural economy contracted in Q2, 2019
Although South Africa’s economy has recovered from the previous quarter’s economic performance with a 3.1% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted growth rate (q/q saar), agriculture did not contribute to the improvement. After a strong contraction (16.8% -- revised numbers) during the first quarter of 2019, we were optimistic that things would turn around for South African agriculture. We hoped that base effects coupled with improved horticulture production would trigger a recovery for the sector. However, we were wrong.
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06/04 South African agricultural fortunes shrink in Q1, 2019
South Africa’s agricultural economy started the year on a bad footing, contracting by 13.2% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised rate (q/q saar). This came as a surprise as we expected a positive reading on the back of improvement in some horticultural subsectors, and the winter crops harvest. At the heart of it though, the contraction is in line with the numbers that are coming out of key horticultural industries that harvested during the first quarter of the year. 
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12/04 South African Agricultural Economy Recovers in Q3, 2018
After entering a technical recession in the second quarter of the year, the South African agricultural economy recovered in the third quarter, boosted by higher production of horticulture and animal products. Within the horticultural subsector, the most notable performer was the citrus industry which has thus far exported a record 2 million tonnes for the year. The uptick in animal products somewhat mirrors the recovery in the livestock sector after the 2015-16 drought period. Nonetheless, we still believe that the agricultural sector will contract in 2018 due to generally lower output of major agricultural commodities compared to 2017.
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06/03 SA agricultural economy grew by 17.7% in 2017
After an extended contraction in 2015 and 2016, the South African agricultural economy grew by 17.7% in 2017. This was boosted by strong output in almost all the subsectors, such as field crops, livestock and horticulture, amongst others. In fact, this is also clear from trade data, where the country’s agricultural exports grew past the US$10 billion mark for the first time.
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ENQUIRIES:
Wandile Sihlobo
Agbiz Head: Agribusiness Research
E-mail: wandile@agbiz.co.za or call +27 12 807 6686
Twitter:     @WandileSihlobo

2017 GDP Archive

2017UpdatesDownload
 05/12 SA agricultural economy showing robust growth in Q3, 2017
After registering a 38.7% q/q (revised) growth rate in the second quarter of this year, the agricultural GDP grew by 44.2% q/q in the third quarter . This is against our expectations of a moderate growth of around the mid 20% q/q, as we think the sector should start tracking its long-term growth levels. Nevertheless, this continued strong growth could be explained by good agricultural output during the 2016/17 summer production season, which in turn boosted trade.
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05/10 SA agricultural economy showing robust growth in Q2, 2017
The second quarter agricultural GDP figures confirm that the sector is eventually out of the woods. Data released this morning showed that the sector grew by 33.6% q/q in the second quarter of 2017, which is significantly higher than the 22.2% q/q recorded in the first quarter of this year . This in line with the sentiment shared in the previous quarter that this positive growth path will continue throughout the year – sustained by robust agricultural output in the summer crops producing areas. Overall, we expect this positive growth path to be sustained throughout the year, but at a relatively lesser degree than what we observed in the first two-quarters of the year.
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06/06 SA agricultural economy showing signs of recovery in Q1, 2017
The agricultural GDP has landed in positive territory for the first time since 2014, driven by a robust recovery in agricultural production. The recovery in production is largely supported by a record maize and soybean harvest. Data released this morning showed that agricultural GDP grew of 22.2% quarter-on-quarter for the first time in over two years . We expect this positive growth to continue for the rest of the year, sustained by growing optimism in the sector.
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10/03 South African agricultural sector remained in recession in Q4, 2016
Although some commodities such as winter grains and stone fruits saw increased activity in the fourth quarter of 2016, South Africa’s agricultural sector remained in recession. This comes after the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data showed a negative growth of seasonally adjusted annualised rate of -0.1% quarter-on-quarter1 . The sector has been on a negative growth path for the past eight quarters, but the outlook is positive for 2017.
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ENQUIRIES:
Wandile Sihlobo
Agbiz Head: Agribusiness Research
E-mail: wandile@agbiz.co.za or call +27 12 807 6686
Twitter:     @WandileSihlobo

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