Article
Observations about South Africa's 2025-26 winter crop production outlook
Published: 07/05/2025
This month, farming businesses in the Western Cape will start preparing the land for the 2025-26 winter crop production season. In the northern regions of South Africa, we had excellent rains, and perhaps excessive rains in certain areas. Rainy weather has cleared in these regions as the winter sets in and producers prepare for harvest. In the Western Cape, a winter crop region, the focus will be on whether the province can receive much-needed rains to support the 2025-26 winter crop production season in a similar way we saw with the summer crop regions of the country.
- This month, farming businesses in the Western Cape will start preparing the land for the 2025-26 winter crop production season. In the northern regions of South Africa, we had excellent rains, and perhaps excessive rains in certain areas. Rainy weather has cleared in these regions as the winter sets in and producers prepare for harvest. In the Western Cape, a winter crop region, the focus will be on whether the province can receive much-needed rains to support the 2025-26 winter crop production season in a similar way we saw with the summer crop regions of the country.
- In its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch released on 2 May, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) signalled a worrying outlook about the rain prospects for these regions. The SAWS stated that, " the south-western parts and the southern and eastern coastal areas are expected to receive mostly below-normal rainfall early-, mid- and late-winter."1 These regions include the Western Cape, where over two-thirds of South Africa's winter crops are cultivated. Still, we are early in the season, and this view may change in the coming months. The most important thing is for the producers to consistently assess the weather prospects for their regions and the soil moisture and make the planting decisions, amongst other considerations.
- As we stated recently, aside from the uncertain weather prospects, input prices are relatively more favourable for farmers in the winter crop-growing regions as these are largely down from last year. With that said, the prices of some fertilizer products and agrochemicals are somewhat up from a year ago.2 South Africa is a net importer of fertilizers and agrochemicals and is exposed to exchange rate fluctuations that may also present some price risks in the current volatile geoeconomic environment. Still, the start of the season this month, when there is a high usage of inputs, is at a time when prices are still more accommodative.
- Fortunately, the farmers are optimistic about the 2025-26 winter crop production season. For example, the Crop Estimates Committee show that the 2025-26 winter crop farmers planting intentions are at 827 970 hectares, up by 1% from the previous season. This comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats, and sweet lupines. A closer look at the major crops shows some minor deviations, with all crop area plantings increasing while barley is falling.
- The farmers intend to plant the 2025-26 wheat crop in 513 200 hectares, up 2% from the previous season. If we assume relatively favourable weather conditions and a decent yield of 3,97 tonnes per hectare, which aligns with a five-year average, South Africa's wheat harvest would be 2,04 million tonnes. This would be up 6% from the 2024-25 production season.
- In the case of canola, the farmers intend to plant 166 500 hectares, up by 0,5% from the previous season. Similarly, if we apply a five-year average yield of 1,89 tonnes per hectare, South Africa could harvest 314 685 tonnes, up 9% from the previous season. Regarding oats, the farmers intend to plant 34 520 hectares, up 11% from the 2024-25 season. Applying an average yield of 1,54 tonnes per hectare means the harvest could be 53 161 tonnes, up 24%.
- Unlike other crops, the farmers intend to slash the barley plantings by 8% to 93,050 hectares in the 2025-26 season. If we apply a five-year average yield of 3,58 tonnes per hectare on barley, we will have a harvest possibility of 333,119 tonnes, down by 11% from the previous season.
- Overall, it is still too early to tell where the winter crop harvest could be and whether farmers will successfully manage to plant the area they intend to till. So far, the focus is on the weather, and the near-term prospects are concerning. Still, we will have to monitor closely this month's update and the outlook for specific regions. Aside from the weather issues, winter crops' general input cost conditions are more accommodating.
