Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa

Market Research

The Agbiz Agribusiness Research desk, headed by agriculture economist Wandile Sihlobo, offers role players access to up to date insights.

Read latest and previous updates:

Trade Research Notes

Year	Publication
20/11/2024	Easing agricultural trade friction in SACU is crucial The Southern Africa region has experienced agricultural trade friction in the past few years. Namibia and Botswana placed a ban on the imports of South African vegetables and citrus. Simply put, the rationale from both Namibia and Botswana officials was that the import ban ensures that their domestic producers are not exposed to the South African competition, thus having space to rebuild for self-sufficiency.	View
13/11/2024	What would President Trump's trade policy mean for agriculture? Geopolitical tensions and restrictive trade policies constitute a significant risk factor in global agriculture. Trade tensions have escalated since 2018, when the US introduced import tariffs on Chinese products, and China retaliated with import tariffs on agricultural products. In the years after, trade disruptions intensified with Russia invading Ukraine. The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has made for an even more geopolitically fragmented world. These events have created an environment where more and more countries are looking inward in terms of trade policies, and others prefer "friend-shoring", which relies more on countries they have geopolitical alliances with or in the same trade bloc.	View Download
21/10/2024	Is South Africa spending sufficiently on agricultural research? Technological improvement is a primary catalyst for the growth of the South African agricultural sector.1 Thus, South Africa must continue to spend money on research and development to support the long-term growth of the agricultural sector. However, in recent years, the country seems to be spending less on research, which is worrying, especially during increased climate change risks and the need for even greater spending on research.	View Download
16/10/2024	Growth through exports There is consensus amongst South African agribusinesses, farmers, and the government that the path to growing South Africa's agricultural sector must include a strong focus on exports. Creating an environment where the agricultural sector continues to attract investment and grows sustainably in the long run will be difficult to achieve without opening up the export markets. Thus, the government and private sector's efforts in boosting agricultural production in various regions of South Africa must be matched with the same drive to expand export markets.	View
02/10/2024	India has removed the rice export ban, and this is positive for South African consumers A few days ago, we commented that India's possible removal of the rice import ban would add further downward pressure on global rice prices, which supports the South African consumer. India has now removed the export ban; thus, it's appropriate that we present an updated version of that note.	View Download

Food inflation (Consumer Price Index)

Year	Publication
20/11/2024	South Africa's consumer food price inflation is at its lowest level since May 2019 Having stabilized at 4,1% in September 2024, South Africa's consumer food price inflation slowed notably to 2,8% in October. This is the lowest level since May 2019. The deceleration was broad-based, except for "sugar, sweets and desserts", which lifted somewhat. The slowdown was largely driven by base effects, as food price inflation was elevated this time last year. For example, this time last year, grain prices faced upward pressure following India's rice export ban, while an avian influenza outbreak constrained egg supplies, exacerbating price risks. We are far from that worrying reality, as India has resumed rice exports, and prices have slowed generally. Moreover, South Africa's poultry product supplies have normalized. Also worth noting is that the recovery in vegetable supplies across various fresh produce markets in the country also added to the softening of prices. We suspect that the generally lower wheat prices have also added to this moderation of prices.	View Download
23/10/2024	South Africa's consumer food price inflation remained flat in September After a slight increase to 4,1% in August 2024, South Africa's consumer food price inflation remained unchanged in September. However, there was a mild deceleration in some products' price inflation, including "bread and cereals", "meat", "sugar, sweets and desserts".	View Download
18/09/2024	South Africa’s consumer food price inflation edged up in August After slowing to 3,9% in July 2024, South Africa's consumer food price inflation slightly edged up 4,1% in August. The products underpinning this mild increase were "bread and cereal", "meat", "vegetables", "fish", and "milk, eggs and cheese". While a slight uptick was expected, we remain sceptical that price increases will be significant in the coming months.	View Download
21/08/2024	SA consumer food price inflation has reached its lowest level since January 2020 South Africa's consumer food price inflation slowed to 3,9% in July 2024, from 4,1% in the previous month. This is the level since January 2020 and was underpinned by the continued moderation in price inflation across most products in the food baskets, except for "bread and cereal" and "meat".	View Download
24/07/2024	South Africa's consumer food price inflation continued to slow in June 2024 South Africa's consumer food price inflation slowed to 4,1% in June 2024, from 4,3% in the previous month. There was moderation in price inflation across most products in the food baskets, except for bread and cereal products, as well as meat. The slight uptick in these particular product prices is unsurprising, as we had signalled in our previous note. The prices of bread and cereals mirror the increases we have long observed at the farm level. The challenge arises from the mid-summer drought that led to an 18% y/y decline in maize production to an expected 13,4 million tonnes. White maize production is forecast at 6,3 million tonnes (down 26% y/y), and yellow maize at 7,1 million tonnes (down 10% y/y). Given the scale of the decline in the white maize harvest and the expected strong demand from Southern Africa, we expect white maize prices to remain reasonably elevated for some time and thus sustain the increases in the prices of bread and cereal products in the food basket.	View Download
19/06/2024	A continued easing of SA consumer food inflation We continue to observe a welcome easing in South Africa's consumer food inflation. The data released this morning by Statistics South Africa shows that consumer food inflation slowed to 4,3% in May 2024, down from 4.4% in the previous month. This deceleration was primarily driven by price moderations in "bread and cereals", "milk, eggs and cheese", "oils and fats", and "sugar, sweets and desserts". Meanwhile, other products in the food basket experienced a mildly increase.	View Download
23/05/2024	SA consumer food inflation decelerates further South Africa's consumer food inflation slowed to 4,4% in April 2024 (from 4,9% in the previous month). This was underpinned by the deceleration across most food products, except for "fruit and vegetables", which lifted mildly from the last month.	View Download
17/04/2024	SA consumer food inflation falls to the lowest level since September 2020 South Africa's consumer food inflation decelerated to 4,9% in March 2024 (from 6,0% in the previous month). This is the lowest level since September 2020 and was underpinned by the deceleration across most food products, except for "fish", which lifted mildly from the previous month. While it has been quite dry across the country, vegetable and fruit production has not taken a significant strain because all commercial production in South Africa is under irrigation, and load-shedding has been mild.	View
20/03/2024	South Africa's consumer food inflation decelerated in February 2024 South Africa's consumer food inflation slowed to 6,0% in February 2024, from 7,0% in the previous month. This was underpinned by the deceleration across most food products, except for "sugar, sweets and desserts", which remained roughly unchanged from the last months.	View Download
13/03/2024	Narratives that underpin the consumer food inflation outlook in South Africa The damaging effects of persistent dryness and heatwave in South Africa's summer crop-growing regions have raised concerns about a possible rise in consumer food inflation in the coming months. With South Africa's food price inflation averaging 11% in 2023 (from 9,5% in 2022, 6,5% in 2021, and 4,8% in 2020)1, which was relatively high compared with recent periods, talk of further upside pressure in inflation comes as an unwelcome development.	View Download
22/02/2024	South Africa's consumer food inflation decelerated in January 2024 South Africa's consumer food inflation slowed to 7,0% in January 2024, from 8,5% in the previous month. This was underpinned by the deceleration across most food products, except for the sugar, sweets and desserts. We expect this broad moderation path to continue in 2024 for most of the products within the food basket, assuming that domestic agricultural conditions improve and South Africa gets a decent summer grain and oilseed harvest.	View Download
24/01/2024	South Africa's consumer food inflation slowed in December 2023 South Africa's consumer food inflation slowed to 8,5% in December 2023, from 9,0% in the previous month (and against our expectations of a slight uptick to 9,3%). The product prices underpinning this deceleration were primarily bread and cereals; oils and fats; and vegetables. We expect this moderation path to continue in 2024 for most of the products within the food basket.	View Download
13/12/2023	South Africa's consumer food inflation ticks up in November 2023 South Africa's consumer food inflation quickened to 9,0% in November 2023, from 8,8% in the previous month. The product prices underpinning this increase were mainly milk, eggs and cheese; fruit; vegetables; and sugar, sweets and desserts.	View Download
22/11/2023	South Africa's consumer food inflation accelerated mildly in October 2023 After slowing for six consecutive months, South Africa's consumer food inflation quickened to 8,8% in October 2023, from 8,0% in the previous month. The product prices underpinning this increase were mainly milk, eggs and cheese; fruit; and vegetables. For all these products, the recent price rises will likely be a temporary blip. They are a reaction to brief supply constraints in the past few months.	View Download
18/10/2023	South Africa's consumer food inflation slightly moderated in September 2023 South Africa's consumer food inflation slightly slowed to 8,0% in September 2023 from 8,2% in the previous month. The product prices underpinning this deceleration are mainly bread and cereals; oils and fats; sugar, sweets and desserts; and vegetables. Our view of the path forward remains unchanged from what we have consistently communicated over the past few months.	View Download
19/07/2023	South Africa's consumer food inflation slowed in June 2023 South Africa's consumer food inflation slowed in June 2023, recorded at 11,1% from 12,0% in the previous month. The product prices underpinning this deceleration are mainly bread and cereals; meat; fish; milk, eggs and cheese; and oils and fats. While there are renewed risks in global agriculture, such as India threatening to ban the exports of rice and the Black Sea Grain Deal Initiative that facilitated grains and oilseeds exports from Ukraine terminated, we are still positive that South Africa's consumer food inflation will continue to slow during this second half of the year.	View Download
21/06/2023	SA consumer food inflation decelerates South Africa's consumer food inflation decelerated to 12,0% in May 2023 from 14,3% in the previous month. The food product prices primarily underpinning this moderation are bread and cereals; meat; fish; oils and fats; and fruit.	View Download
12/06/2023	SA consumer inflation food prices closer to the peak The data released by Statistics South Africa this morning shows that consumer food price increases accelerated by 14,4% in March 2023 from 14,0% in the previous month. The food product prices that increased notably were milk, eggs, and cheese; fruit; vegetables; and sugar, sweets and desserts.	View Download
24/05/2023	SA consumer food inflation slightly moderates The data released by Statistics South Africa this morning shows that consumer food inflation moderated at 14,3% in April 2023 from 14,4% in the previous month. The food products prices that underpinned this slight deceleration are meat; oils and fats; and fruit. Meanwhile, other product prices increased mildly.	View Download
06/04/2023	Are retailers and food producers exploiting South Africans through higher-than-warranted food prices? The Competition Commission's recent report on agriculture and food markets dominated the conversations in the industry groupings last week. Therefore, we thought it was necessary to outline some shortcomings of the report in an essay published in the Sunday Times this past weekend. This morning, we jointly present our arguments in the Sunday Times essay with Professor Johann Kirsten of Stellenbosch University's Department of Agricultural Economics.	View Download
15/02/2023	A notable jump in SA consumer food price inflation While in some regions of the world, consumer food price inflation has started to cool off; South Africa sees the opposite. The data released this morning by Statistics South Africa shows that consumer food price inflation accelerated to 13,8% y/y in January from 12,7% in the previous month. The food product prices that increased notably were bread and cereals, meat, fish, fruit and vegetables. These are also the products with a significant weighting within the food basket; thus, we see a notable increase in the headline number. For example, within the food basket, the large weighting of essential products are meat (35%); bread and cereals (21%); milk, cheese and eggs (17%); vegetables (8%); sugar, sweets and desserts (4%); oils and fats (3%); and fruit (2%).	View Download
18/01/2023	SA consumer food price inflation path uncertain as loadshedding presents risks to irrigation and processing The data released by Statistics South Africa this morning shows that consumer food price inflation slowed marginally to 12,7% in December 2022 from 12,8% in November. The product prices underpinning this moderation include meat, oils, and fats. For the whole of 2022, the consumer food price inflation averaged 9,5% (compared with 6,5% y/y in 2021 and 4,8% in 2020). Broadly, the high prices of grains, vegetable oils, and meat for much of 2022 were the primary drivers of consumer food price inflation. This was not a unique occurrence to South Africa, but a global challenge mirrored the surge in agricultural commodity prices in the first three quarters of 2022 and the year before. The agricultural commodities price increase emanated from various factors such as the drought in South America, higher shipping costs, strong agricultural product demand in China, and the Russia-Ukraine war.	View Download
27/06/2022	South Africa’s consumer food price inflation accelerated in May We are in a period of elevated prices, and food is at the core of these increases. For example, in May, South Africa’s consumer food price inflation accelerated to 7,8% y/y, from 6,3% in the previous month. This is the quickest pace since March 2017. The increase was broad base on all food products in the inflation basket. This largely mirrors the uptick we have been seeing in the global agricultural commodity prices, and indeed the domestic market.	View Download
20/04/2022	SA consumer food price inflation moderated in March 2022 Since the war in Ukraine began and disrupted the global grains market, the agricultural commodity prices have increased significantly, with the FAO's Global Food Price Index in March averaging 170 points, which is the highest level since the inception of the index in 1990. The rise in grains and vegetable oil prices has been the primary driver of the surge in the Index. As interlinked to the global agricultural markets, South Africa has also experienced increases in agricultural commodity prices. The resulting observation of these developments has been a potential uptick in consumer food price inflation. But there is a lag between farmgate price increases and the retail level.	View Download
30/03/2022	SA consumer food price inflation could accelerate modestly in the coming months The subject of food prices is again a major focus as the agricultural commodities prices continue to surge on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war. But the effects of the war on agricultural commodities prices have not yet fully reflected on the retail prices of various food products due to the lag in price transmission. The price increases will likely reflect, partially, from March 2022 consumer food price inflation and the months that follow. So far, we have South Africa’s consumer food price inflation data for February, which accelerated to 6,7% y/y, from 6,2% y/y in the previous month. Bread and cereals; meat and fish, are the primary products that underpinned this mild uptick in overall consumer food price inflation in February.	View Download
16/02/2022	An uptick in SA consumer food price inflation in January 2022 The data released by Statistics South Africa this morning shows that consumer food price inflation accelerated to 6,2% y/y in January 2022, from 5,9% y/y in the previous month. Fish, oils and fats, and vegetables are the primary products underpinning this uptick in the overall consumer food price inflation.	View Download
19/01/2022	SA consumer food price inflation likely to moderate somewhat in 2022 The data released by Statistics South Africa this morning shows that consumer food price inflation slowed marginally to 5,9% in December 2021 from 6,0% in November. The product prices underpinning this slight moderation include bread, cereals, and fish. For the whole of 2021, the consumer food price inflation averaged 6,5% (compared with 4.6% y/y in 2020). Broadly, the high grains, vegetable oils and meat for the past few months were the primary drivers of consumer food price inflation in 2021.	View Download
15/12/2021	SA food price inflation moderated further in November 2021 After peaking to 7.4% y/y in August 2021, South Africa's consumer food price inflation has continued to moderate and softened to 6.0% in November from 6.7% in October. The food products prices underpinning this deceleration in inflation are bread and cereals, meat, fruit, and vegetables. For the first eleven months, consumer food price inflation averaged 6.5% (compared with 4.6% y/y in 2020). The high grains, vegetable oils and meat for much of the past few months were the primary drivers of the consumer food price inflation.	View Download
23/11/2021	SA consumer food price inflation moderated in October South Africa's consumer food price inflation moderated to 6,7% y/y in October 2021, from 7,0% in the previous month. There was a deceleration in products price inflation across the food basket except for vegetables. Still, we think the uptick in vegetable price inflation is temporary and was mainly caused by the supply constraints in the northern parts of South Africa in the past few months, which has now normalised. While we expect consumer food price inflation to continue to slow in the coming months, we no longer think this will be significant.	View Download
25/10/2021	SA consumer food price inflation moderated in September South Africa's consumer food price inflation moderated to 7,0% y/y in September 2021, from 7,4% in the previous month. The products prices underpinning this deceleration include 'bread and cereals', 'meat', 'fish', and 'vegetables'. While we expect consumer food price inflation to continue to slow in the coming months, we no longer think this will be significant. There will likely be upward cost pressures from 'meat' and 'oils and fats' to counter the expected decline in various products such as 'bread and cereals' and 'vegetables'.	View Download
28/09/2021	Higher than expected consumer food price inflation in August 2021 South Africa’s consumer food price inflation continues to surprise on the upside. We thought the start of the second half of the year would moderate the increase we observed in the past few months. But the data released by Statistics South Africa on 22 September 2021 show that consumer food price inflation accelerated to 7,4% y/y in August 2021 after registering 7,0% in the previous two months. This is the highest level since March 2017. The underpinning drivers of this uptick in consumer food price inflation was meat and, to a lesser extent, fish and vegetables. Meanwhile, most products in the food basket, including ‘bread and cereals, and ‘oils and fats’, decelerated, the latter after a sharp increase in recent months.	View Download
24/05/2021	What to make of South Africa's recent consumer food price inflation data? Statistics South Africa recently reported much higher figures for consumer food price inflation than some had expected. In April 2021, the country's consumer food prices were at 6,7% year-on-year, the highest level since July 2017. The different thing about 2017 is that it was a year that followed a drought period – so there were still pass-throughs of higher grain prices from the previous poor season. Notably, livestock farmers were restocking their herds after the devastation caused by the drought. This meant that there was less slaughtering activity and meat prices rose, driving the uptick on overall consumer food price inflation, which for July 2017 was reported at 6,9% year-on-year. But we are far from that reality this time around. We have had two consecutive favourable agricultural seasons, characterized by higher rainfall, which supported crop yields and the livestock industry.	View Download
26/04/2021	SA consumer food price inflation lifted marginally in March 2021 Consumer food price inflation accelerated to 5,9% y/y in March 2021 from 5,4% y/y in the previous month. The product prices underpinning the uptick were mainly bread and cereals; fish; milk, eggs and cheese; and oils and fats. The increase in prices of these products is unsurprising and reflects the elevated farm-level prices we observed at the end of 2020 and into 2021. Typically, the passthrough from the farm level to the retail level for products such as grains is three months.	View Download
29/03/2021	SA consumer food price inflation decelerates further in February 2021 After softening from 6,2% y/y in December 2020 to 5,6 % y/y in January 2021, South Africa's consumer food price inflation decelerated further to 5,4% y/y in February. The primary products underpinning this deceleration in price inflation are meat, fruit, vegetables, and bread and cereals. Importantly, this is in line with the price trends in agricultural commodity prices, which, while still elevated, are at lower levels than the corresponding period in 2020.	View Download
18/02/2021	SA food price inflation decelerates in January 2021 South Africa's food price inflation softened to 5,6% y/y in January 2021, from 6,2% y/y in the previous month. The deceleration was in most product prices in the food basket except for bread and cereals, which accelerated from the levels seen in December 2020. Nevertheless, this was overshadowed by the slowing price inflation in meat; fish; milk, eggs and cheese; fruit; and vegetables.	View Download
24/08/2020	SA food price inflation decelerates to the lowest level in 22 months Food inflation continued to decelerate driven by lower agricultural commodity prices. In September 2017, the overall food price inflation eased to 5.4%, which is the lowest since November 2015. With that said, the picture remains mixed within the food basket. Meat price inflation remains stickier primarily due to base effects, as well as spreading avian influenza. Livestock restocking process, which has been the key driver of meat price inflation for some time is somewhat normalising, as abattoir’s data show an uptick in monthly slaughtering activity. Given the weight of poultry in the overall food price inflation, the spreading avian influenza will remain a key upside risk to food inflation over the foreseeable future.	View Download
29/04/2020	An uptick in SA food price inflation in March 2020 South Africa’s food price inflation accelerated to 4.4% y/y in March 2020, from 4.2% y/y in the previous month. This uptick was mainly underpinned by relative price rises of meat; milk, eggs and cheese; and fruit. Meanwhile, other products decelerated and some remained roughly unchanged. While there are still unknowns about the definite impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on agriculture and the food sector, we are still convinced that what will matter the most for the direction of food price inflation this year are developments in the grains, meat markets and fruit. These three food categories account for nearly two-thirds of South Africa’s food price inflation basket.	View Download
18/03/2020	Slight uptick in SA food price inflation in February 2020 The data released this morning by Statistics South Africa shows that the country’s food price inflation accelerated to 4.2% in February 2020, from 3.7% y/y in the previous month. This uptick was mainly underpinned by relative price rises of meat; milk, eggs and cheese; oils and fats; and vegetables. Still, this doesn’t change our view that what will matter the most for the direction of food price inflation this year are developments in the grains, meat markets and fruit. These three food categories account for nearly two-thirds of South Africa’s food price inflation basket.	View Download
17/04/2019	SA food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation accelerated marginally in March 2019 While South Africa’s headline food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation accelerated to 3.1% in March 2019 from 2.9% in the previous month, the food category remained unchanged at 2.3% for the third consecutive months, as shown in Figure 1. This is on the back of lower meat prices, which continued to offset higher prices of grain-related products. However, this is a trend that is likely to change in the coming months as underlying data in the meat industry points to potential price increases in the near term. As a result, we still think South Africa’s food and non-alcoholic beverages price inflation could average about 5% y/y in 2019.	View Download
20/02/2019	SA food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation unchanged in January 2019 South Africa’s food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation remained unchanged in January 2019 at 3.0% y/y. But we think going forward there will be upside pressures which will emanate from a general increase in agricultural commodity prices, albeit having slowed somewhat from levels seen at the start of the year. The increases will, however, not be steep due to expectations of a decline in meat prices. We think South Africa’s food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation could average about 5% y/y in 2019.	View Download
12/12/2018	SA food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation unchanged in November 2018 South Africa’s food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation has bottomed out and will begin an upward cycle in the coming months supported by an increase in agricultural commodities prices. But the headline number will probably increase marginally as we expect the uptick in cattle and sheep slaughtering activity to contain meat prices at fairly lower levels in the near term, and that in turn, will influence the overall increase.	View Download
22/08/2018	SA food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation unchanged South Africa’s food and non-alcoholic beverages price inflation remain unchanged for a third consecutive month, at 3.4% y/y in July 2018. Similar to the previous months,most food products inflation within the basket generally softened due to lower agricultural commodity prices, which in turn, were a reflection of available large supplies.The deceleration in meat price inflation was largely underpinned by lower pork prices. The only food category that showed a notable uptick was milk, eggs and cheese, which was partly due to the effects of avian influenza in South Africa’s egg-laying flock.	View Download
24/01/2018	South Africa’s food inflation accelerates Food inflation for December 2017 was in line with our expectation at 4.9% y/y, from 5.2% in November 2017. This is reflective of the current lower agricultural commodity prices, which in turn, have been pressured by a large harvest from the 2016/17 production season. We expect this trend to persist in the short term cushioned by the relatively large stock from the previous season, despite the fears of dryness in the western parts of the country.	View Download
13/12/2017	SA food price inflation continues to decelerate Food inflation decelerated to 5.2% y/y last month, from 5.3% y/y in October 2017. Most food products price inflation within the basket continued to slow, reflecting the recent good harvest of grains and oilseeds. Moreover, meat price inflation, which has been somewhat stickier in the past few months, also decelerated due to an uptick in livestock slaughtering activity. Amongst products on the upside; milk, eggs and cheese price inflation increased by one percentage point from the previous month. This is partially on the back of the damage caused by the Avian Influenza in the poultry industry.	View Download
22/11/2017	SA food price inflation decelerates Food inflation slowed to 5.3% y/y in October 2017, from 5.4% y/y in the previous month. This is the lowest level in 23-months, thanks to lower agricultural commodity prices. Most food product price inflation remain at relatively lower levels, with the exception of meat which is still at double digits, at 15.5% y/y last month. While fears of avian influenza have not completely dissipated, the impact has largely been on egg layers. Broilers were roughly 8% of the birds culled thus far. The cattle restocking process is also proving to be slower than we initially anticipated.	View Download
20/09/2017	SA food inflation falls to the lowest level in 21 months Food inflation decelerated to 5.7% y/y in August 2017, from 6.8% y/y in the previous month. This is the lowest levels since November 2015 - thanks to good summer rain, which led to a higher agricultural output. While we expect further moderation in the next few months, the picture of the food basket remains mixed. All food products have decelerated, with the exception of meat which remains stickier, recording 15.0% y/y in August 2017, which is the highest level since December 2011.	View Download
23/08/2017	SA food inflation falls marginally to 6.8%, but meat remains a key risk Food inflation decelerated to 6.8% y/y in July 2017, from 6.9% y/y in the previous month. This mirrors the benefits of the higher agricultural output following good summer rainfall across the country. Although we expect further moderation in the next few months, the picture of the food basket is mixed. Most food products have decelerated, with the exception of meat which is proving stickier than expected, recording 14.4% y/y in July, which is the highest level since December 2011.	View Download
19/07/2017	SA food inflation unchanged at 6.9% Last month’s food inflation figures show the significance of meat within the food basket. All products decelerated from the previous month’s levels with the exception of meat which remained elevated and therefore, sustaining food inflation at 6.9%. The uptick in meat inflation mirrors the remaining effects of the 2015-16 El Niño induced drought in the livestock sector. As farmers continued to restock their herds, the slaughtering activity eased a bit with that resulting in the increase in meat prices.	View Download
24/06/2017	South Africa’s annual food inflation falls to the lowest level in 18 months SA’s annual food inflation falls to the lowest level in 18 months Last month’s deceleration in food inflation, to 6.7% y/y, means that South Africa’s food prices are at the lowest levels in 18 months. This is a reflection of the benefits of higher agricultural output this year following good weather conditions across the country. We think that there is still room for further, but moderate deceleration in the next few months.	View Download
21/06/2017	Meat drives up SA’s food inflation Last month’s slight uptick in South Africa’s food inflation mirrors the tail-end effects of the 2015-16 El Niño induced drought in the livestock sector. As farmers continued to restock their herds, the slaughtering activity eased a bit with that resulting in the increase in meat prices . However,the expected recovery in the poultry sector could soften the pace of an increase in overall meat inflation over the coming months.	View Download
19/04/2017	South Africa’s annual food inflation falls to the lowest level in 14 months SA’s annual food inflation falls to the lowest level in 14 months Although there are lag effects between the decline in agricultural commodity prices and retail food prices, the benefits of the uptick in agricultural production are already reflected in food prices. South Africa’s annual food and beverages inflation fell to 8.7% year-on-year in March 2017, which is the lowest level in 14 months.	View Download
22/03/2017	South Africa’s annual food inflation fell below 10% y/y South Africa’s annual food and beverages inflation fell below 10% year-on-year for the first time since March 2016. Given the current bearish trends in agricultural commodity prices, this declining path in food inflation is likely to prevail throughout the year.	View
15/02/2017	South Africa’s food inflation decelerates The recent food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation data suggest that we might have already reached the peak in food inflation and the coming months could show sideways to a downward trend. Data released this morning showed that South Africa’s food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation eased at 11.4% year-on-year (y/y) in January 2017 from 11.7% in December 2016. With non-alcoholic beverages aside, food inflation eased at 11.8% y/y in January 2017 from 12% y/y in December 2016	View Download
18/01/2017	South Africa’s food inflation accelerates 3 Recent Consumer Price Index data shows that food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation accelerated to 11.7% year-on-year (y/y) in December 2016 from 11.6% in November 2016 (with non-alcoholic beverages aside, food inflation increased to 12% y/y in December 2016 from 11.8% y/y in November 2016).	View Download

SA agricultural machinery sales

Year	Publication
08/11/2024	SA's agricultural machinery sales remained weak in October 2024 The latest data from the South African Agricultural Machinery Association shows that in October 2024, tractors and combine harvester sales were down by 26% year-on-year and 28% year-on-year to 765 units and 28 units, respectively. This continues the declining trend we have observed since the start of the year, and there are several reasons behind the weak sales.	View
14/10/2024	South Africa's weak agricultural machinery sales are not the best indicator for the upcoming 2024-25 season Ordinarily, we use agricultural machinery sales to gauge farmers' intentions for the season ahead. When the sales are robust, we are typically positive that farmers are eager for the new season. Equally, we worry about the poor machinery sales. But we are in no ordinary period. The recent months' sales cannot be a guide for the season ahead for various reasons.	View Download
25/09/2024	SA's agricultural machinery sales remained weak in August 2024 South Africa's tractor sales were down by 18% year-on-year in August 2024, with 574 units sold. The combine harvester sales are down by 79% year-on-year, with five units sold. These weak sales are unsurprising and in line with what we have been observing since the start of the year.	View Download
14/08/2024	South Africa's agricultural machinery sales remain weak Following a few years of robust sales, South Africa's agricultural machinery industry is normalizing. Thus, the sales have been relatively weak since the start of this year. The replacement rate of new machinary was bound to slow, even temporarily. The latest data is no different. For example, tractor sales were down 15% year-on-year in July, with 563 units sold. The combine harvester sales are down 75% year-on-year, with eight units sold.	View Download
05/07/2024	South Africa's agricultural machinery sales were down in June 2024 After a slight monthly uptick in May following the NAMPO harvest sales induced optimism, South Africa's agricultural machinery sales slowed notably in June 2024. Tractor sales are down 48% year-on-year, with 487 units. The combine harvester sales are down 67% year-on-year, with 21 units. Admittedly, this is unsurprising, and in line with muted sales we have observed since the start of the year, except for May's slight monthly uptick.	View Download
20/06/2024	South Africa's tractor sales show a monthly uptick We were pleasantly surprised by the upbeat mood amongst the agricultural stakeholders at the NAMPO 2024 in Bothaville. Given the mid-summer drought, which resulted in a 19% drop in South Africa's expected summer grains and oilseed harvest, we anticipated a more sombre atmosphere. However, the South African agricultural stakeholders were out in their numbers at the NAMPO 2024 festival, and the sentiment in Bothaville was as upbeat as the previous years of excellent harvest. We even imagined that South African agricultural machinery sales might start to tick up from the declining trend we had witnessed since the start of the year. Indeed, the tractor sales for May 2024 were the highest monthly figure we have seen since the beginning of the year, at 566 units, up 13% month-on-month. Meanwhile, combine harvester sales were down 4% month-on-month, with 25 units sold.	View Download
14/05/2024	South Africa's agricultural machinery sales declined in April 2024 South Africa's tractor sales were down 8% y/y in April 2024, with 500 units sold. The combined harvester sales were down 75% y/y in the same month, with 26 units sold. The persistent decline in sales since the start of the year reflects the normalization of sales after a few years of robust activity.	View Download
08/04/2024	South Africa's agricultural machinery sales remain weak We continue to see relatively weak sales in South Africa's agricultural machinery market. In March 2024, the tractor sales were down 26% y/y, with 498 units sold. The combine harvester sales were down 33% y/y, with 26 units sold. As we stated in our previous notes, the decline in sales since the start of the year probably reflects the normalization of sales after a few years of robust activity.	View Download
08/03/2024	SA agricultural machinery sales were down notably in February South Africa's agricultural machinery sales fell notably in February 2024. The tractor sales were down 34% y/y, with 516 units sold, and the combine harvester sales were down 54%, with 18 units sold. This significant sales decline broadly reflects the normalization of sales after a few years of robust activity.	View Download
12/02/2024	SA agricultural machinery sales had a poor start to the year We start the year with reasonably weak agricultural machinery sales data. South Africa's tractor sales were down 26% y/y in January 2024, with 353 units sold. At the same time, the combine harvesters were down 50% y/y, with eight units sold. At face value, this could be viewed as a worrying agricultural machinery sales report indicating difficulties in the sector. But we have a different reading of it. This is more of a normalization after a few years of robust sales.	View Download
23/01/2024	What underpinned the mixed performance of South Africa's 2023 agricultural machinery sales South Africa's field crop harvest was excellent in the 2022/23 season. For example, the 2022/23 maize harvest amounted to 16,4 million, 6% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest and the second-largest harvest on record. Soybean harvest is at a record 2,8 million tonnes. South Africa's sugar cane crop was 18,5 million tonnes in 2023/24, up 3% y/y. Other field crops and fruit harvests were also decent in 2023.	View Download
15/11/2023	SA tractor sales declined in October 2023 • With South African farmers signalling a 2% y/y increase in the summer crop and oilseeds planting in the 2023/24 season, one would be forgiven in thinking that the tractor sales would probably also show an upturn from the moderately downward path we have been signalling these past few months. Still, we are convinced that the tractor sales will continue to soften in the months ahead. In fact, with the robust expected area planting, the tractor sales in October 2023 were down 19% year-on-year, with 1 031 units sold.	View Download
10/10/2023	SA agricultural machinery sales slowed in September 2023 • The relatively more robust agricultural machinery sales of the first half of this year were primarily a tail-end benefit of the past season when large harvests and higher commodity prices boosted grain and oilseed farmers' finances. The delivery delays of the orders raised the sales figures for the first half of the year. Over the medium term, the sales will likely remain subdued despite the current 2022/23 large grain and oilseed harvest, but somewhat above long-term average levels.	View Download
08/09/2023	SA agricultural machinery sales down in August 2023 We are now convinced that the relatively more robust agricultural machinery sales of the first half of this year were primarily a tail-end benefit of the past season when large harvests and higher commodity prices boosted grain farmers' finances. The delivery delays of the orders raised the sales figures for the first half of the year. Over the medium term, the sales will likely remain subdued despite the current 2022/23 solid grain harvest.	View Download
10/08/2023	SA agricultural machinery sales declined in July 2023 We think the relatively more robust agricultural machinery sales of the first half of this year are a tail-end benefit of the past season when large harvests and higher commodity prices boosted grain farmers' finances. Thus, we suspect that the delivery delays of the orders boosted the sales report for recent months.	View Download
10/07/2023	SA agricultural machinery sales remained reasonably strong in June 2023 but will likely soften in the coming months Surprisingly, South Africa's agricultural machinery industry reported solid sales in June 2023. For example, tractor sales were up by 13% y/y, with 930 units sold – see the chart. Additionally, the combine harvester sales were at 64 units, up 28% y/y. We think these orders were made in the past few months when farmers were still enjoying the gains of the past few seasons' ample harvests combined with higher prices, thus improving farm profitability.	View Download
19/06/2023	South Africa's agricultural machinery sales will likely soften in the second half of the year We continue to see a mixed picture in South Africa's agricultural machinery sales. For example, tractor sales were down by 13% y/y in May 2023, with 655 units sold – see the chart. Meanwhile, combine harvester sales were 65 units, up 23% y/y. The robust combine harvester sales reflect the expected large summer crop harvest. As mentioned above, South Africa's 2022/23 maize harvest is estimated at 16,1 million, 5% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest and the third-largest harvest on record. Soybeans harvest could reach a record 2,8 million tonnes.	View Download
10/05/2023	SA agricultural machinery sales remained reasonably strong in April 2023 but will likely soften in the second half of the year We continue to see a mixed picture in South Africa's agricultural machinery sales. For example, tractor sales were down by 3% y/y in April 2023, with 543 units sold – see the chart. Meanwhile, combine harvester sales were at 104 units, up significantly from the 44 units sold in April last year.	View Download
11/04/2023	A slight improvement in South Africa's March 2023 tractors sales still doesn’t change the outlook of possible moderation South Africa’s latest agricultural machinery sales painted a mixed picture. The tractor sales were up by 6% y/y in March 2023, with 677 units sold (see Exhibit 1). Meanwhile, combine harvester sales were down by 9% y/y, with 39 units sold. These data aren’t surprising, and we still believe that South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales will cool off this year, following a few years of excellent activity. For example, South Africa's tractor sales for 2022 amounted to 9 184 units, up 17% y/y and the highest annual sales for the past 40 years. The combine harvester sales amounted to 373 in the same period, up 38% y/y and the highest yearly sales figure since 1985.	View
20/03/2023	South Africa's agricultural machinery sales likely to moderate in 2023 We are emerging from years of exceptionally higher agricultural machinery sales in South Africa. For example, South Africa's tractor sales for 2022 amounted to 9 184 units, up 17% from the previous year and the highest annual sales for the past 40 years. The combine harvester sales amounted to 373 in the same period, up 38% from 2021 and the highest yearly sales figure since 1985. This year will likely be a pause from this robust sales period, for several reasons. Chief amongst them is that the possible replacement rate of older machinery will likely be lower this year as the past three years saw increased new machinery sales. Moreover, the rising interest rates will continue to pressure farmers' finances. While other input cost prices, such as fertilizer and agrochemicals, have softened in recent months, the current price levels are still well above long-term levels, thus adding pressure on farmers’ finances.	View Download
08/02/2023	South Africa's agricultural machinery sales are likely to moderate in 2023 compared to the robust levels of 2022 After solid activity in 20221, South Africa's agricultural machinery sales will likely soften this year. We outlined several reasons for this view in our previous update. For example, we think the possible replacement rate of older machinery will likely be lower this year as the past three years saw increased new machinery sales. The rising interest rates will also continue to pressure farmers' finances. Moreover, while the agricultural sector, specifically rain-fed areas, will likely perform well, the harvest could still be less than the 2021/22 season due to prospects of lower yields and reduced planted area. This lowers the farmers' financial muscle to spend on agricultural equipment.	View Download
16/01/2023	South Africa saw robust agricultural machinery sales in 2022 Although we expect South Africa's agricultural gross value added for 2022 to have contracted, the year was generally favourable for the sector. The squeeze we anticipate results from mild declines in critical crop harvests such as maize, production challenges in the sugar industry, trade friction in fruits, vegetables, beef and wool, and widespread foot-and-mouth disease weighed on the sector's performance this year. In a slightly more technical sense, the strong growth in the previous two years -- 14,9% y/y in 2020 and 8,8% y/y in 2021 -- created an exceptionally high base, setting the ground for some pullback.	View Download
15/12/2022	South Africa’s monthly tractor sales decline for the first time since early 2020 After registering positive growth since May 2020, South Africa’s tractor sales fell by 5% year-on-year in November 2022, with 704 units sold. Still, the current sales are well above the long-term monthly average of 565 units, and reflect an environment where farmers were financially secured and confident about the seasons ahead, and thus increased investment in movable assets.	View Download
10/10/2022	SA agriculture machinery sales paint a mixed picture in September 2022 After a solid run since the start of the year, South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales painted a mixed picture in September 2022. For example, tractor sales were up by 4% year-on-year (y/y), with 777 units sold. Meanwhile, the combine harvester sales were at 17 units, down 19% from September 2021. Still, a monthly decline in the combine harvester sales does not change the fact that agricultural machinery sales have been on solid footing since the start of 2020.	View Download
22/08/2022	SA agriculture machinery sales remained robust in July We continue to be surprised by the solid agricultural machinery sales, which have remained robust in the first seven months of 2022. The data released by the South African Agricultural Machinery Association this past week show that in July 2022, tractor sales were up by 32% year-on-year (y/y), with 662 units sold. Combine harvester sales were at 36 units, significantly up from eight units sold in the same month a year ago. The generally healthy sales are a welcome development, as they indicate a primary agricultural sector still in a reasonably better financial condition and continues to invest in movable assets.	View Download
09/03/2022	SA agriculture machinery industry saw robust sales in February 2022, but the outlook remains uncertain The data released by the South African Agricultural Machinery Association show that agricultural machinery sales have remained on a positive path in the first two months of 2022. The tractor sales were up by 20% y/y in February 2022, with 789 units sold. At the same time, the combine harvester sales were up 36% y/y, with 19 units sold. This builds upon the solid momentum of the past two years.	View Download
15/02/2022	SA agriculture machinery industry has a positive start into 2022 South Africa's agricultural machinery industry has had two consecutive years of robust sales boosted by improved farmers finances on the back of a large harvest in 2019/20 and 2020/21, combined with higher commodity prices, particularly in grains and oilseeds.1 However, 2022 will likely change the trend and show moderate agricultural machinery sales as the new machinery's replacement rate will probably be lower than the previous years. Moreover, the crop harvest, especially grains and oilseeds, which were the primary drivers of sales in the past few years, could show a lower yield this year than the past two seasons because of the excessive rains since the start of the 2021/22 production season. This could reduce the profitability of various farming businesses and, after that, equipment purchases.	View Download
17/01/2022	SA agriculture machinery sales could cool off in 2022 The year 2021 was generally a good agricultural season for particular subsectors such as the grain industry, and the interlinked industries like the agricultural machinery industry also benefited. South Africa's tractor sales for 2021 amounted to 7 680 units, up by 26% from the previous year. The combine harvester sales amounted to 268 units in the same period, up by 46% from 2020. Notably, 2020 was also an excellent year in South Africa's agricultural machinery sales, so surpassing it means 2021 was indeed an exceptional year. In 2020, the tractor sales amounted to 5 738 units, up by 9% from 2019. The combine harvester sales increased 29% from 2019, with 184 units sold in 2020.	View Download
14/12/2021	SA's agriculture machinery sales remain on a positive path South Africa's agricultural machinery sales have been robust for over a year. In November 2021, the tractor sales of 742 units, up by 22% y/y. Meanwhile, the combine harvester sales of eight units, double the units sold in the same month last year. This placed the total tractor sales for the first 11 months of this year at 6 980 units, up by 25% y/y. The combine harvester sales increased by 38% y/y over the same period, with 250 units sold.	View Download
16/11/2021	South Africa's agriculture machinery sales have reached the highest levels since 2014 South Africa's agricultural machinery sales have been robust for over a year now. In October 2021, the tractor sales of 856 units, up by 4% y/y, were the highest monthly volume since October 2014. Meanwhile, the combine harvester sales of 45 units, up by 73% y/y, were the highest monthly sale since March 2014. This placed the total tractor sales for the first 10 months of this year at 6 238 units, up by 25% y/y. The combine harvester sales increased by 37% y/y over the same period, with 242 units sold.	View Download
11/10/2021	South Africa's agricultural machinery sales were robust for the first nine months of the year This past week, the South African Agricultural Machinery Association indicated that tractor and combine harvesters sales were up by 29% and 91% in September 2021 compared with the corresponding period last year, with 724 and 21 units sold. This placed total tractor sales for the first eight months of this year at 5 382 units, up by 30% year-on-year (y/y). Combine harvester sales were also up 30% y/y over the same period with 197 units sold. As we noted in the previous commentaries, 2020 was also a good year in South Africa's agricultural machinery sales, so surpassing it means we are witnessing some good momentum this year. In 2020, the tractor sales amounted to 5 738 units, up by 9% from 2019. The combine harvester sales were up 29% from 2019, with 184 units sold in 2020.	View Download
10/08/2021	Strong tractor sales signal optimism about South Africa’s 2021/22 summer crop season South Africa's agricultural machinery sales remain strong as the 2021/22 production season approaches. In addition to the favourable weather outlook for the upcoming season and attractive grain prices, we view the strong sales as a positive indicator that farmers could plough a sizable area for summer grains and oilseeds of roughly four million hectares as the previous seasons. The recent data from the South African Agricultural Machinery Association show that tractor sales were up by 17% y/y in July, with 549 units sold.	View Download
20/07/2021	Farmers high spending on machinery a vote of confidence in the 2021,22 season In a normal summer season, where there are favourable weather conditions, South African farmers plough roughly four million hectares for summer grains and oilseeds. This comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. While there remains some level of uncertainty about the weather conditions for the upcoming summer crop production season which begins in October, it is fair to say farmers are optimistic and are gearing up for it. The earlier indicator we have thus far is tractor sales which have remained robust since mid-2020.	View Download
15/06/2021	SA tractor and harvester sales remained robust in May 2021 We continue to observe robust activity in South Africa's agricultural machinery market, and this optimism has been underway since May 2020. Last week, the figures released by the South African Agricultural Machinery Association show that tractor and harvester sales were each up by 13% y/y in May 2021, with 518 and 35 units sold, respectively. As we indicated last month, the improved farmers' finances have supported the sale. This is on the back of the large harvest in 2019/20, prospects for yet another good agricultural season in 2020/21, and higher commodities prices. The relatively stronger exchange rate has also been a positive buffer for the imported agricultural machinery.	View Download
11/05/2021	Large agricultural harvest and higher commodity prices continue to boost tractors and harvesters’ sales South Africa's agricultural machinery sales have remained on a positive footing since May 2020. The figures released by the South African Agricultural Machinery Association last week show that tractors' and harvesters' sales were up by 23% y/y and 115% y/y in April 2021, with 540 and 40 units sold, respectively. Improved farmers' finances have supported the sale. This is on the back of the large harvest in 2019/20, prospects for yet another good agricultural season in 2020/21, and higher commodities prices. The relatively stronger exchange rate has also been a positive buffer for the imported agricultural machinery.	View Download
12/04/2021	South Africa's agricultural machinery sales remained on a solid footing in March 2021 The growth in South Africa's agricultural fortunes has benefited the allied industries. This is true in the agricultural machinery sales, which have been on a positive footing for a while. The sale has been supported by improved farmers' finances on the back of the large harvest in 2019/20 and prospects for yet another good agricultural season in 2020/21. The figures released by the South African Agricultural Machinery Association last week show that tractors and combine harvesters' sales were up by 30% y/y and 4% y/y in March 2021, with 601 and 27 units sold respectively.	View Download
08/03/2021	South Africa's tractor sales remain on a positive footing After a solid start of the year with tractor sales up by 28% year on year (y/y), with 445 units sold in January 2021, this positive momentum continued in February, with tractor sales up again 28% y/y, with 648 units sold (see Exhibit 1). These strong sales continue the 2020 positive activity where the tractor sales amounted to 5 738 units, up by 9% from 2019. The underpinning driver is the slightly improved farmers' finances following higher agricultural output in 2020, coupled with relatively higher commodity prices.	View Download
08/02/2021	Solid start of the year for South Africa's agricultural machinery sales South Africa's agricultural machinery sales have had a solid start to the year, with tractor sales up by 28% year on year with 445 units sold in January 2021. The combine harvester sales in the same month were at the same levels as in 2020, with five units sold. These strong sales are somewhat a continuation of the 2020 activity where the tractor sales amounted to 5 738 units, up by 9% from 2019, with combine harvester sales up by 23% from the same year, amounting to 184 units. The underpinning driver is the slightly improved farmers' finances following higher agricultural output in 2020, coupled with relatively higher commodity prices.	View Download
09/10/2020	SA agriculture machinery sales remained on a firm footing in October 2020 South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales remained solid in October 2020. Tractor and combine harvester sales were up by 37% y/y and 136% y/y, with 789 units and 26 units sold, respectively. The tractor sales were boosted, to a certain extent, by improved farmers’ financial position following a large summer grains harvest in the 2019/20 production season, combined with higher commodity prices. South Africa’s 2019/20 maize, sunflower seed, and soybeans production was up 37% y/y, 16% y/y and 8% y/y, estimated at 15.4 million tonnes, 785 910 tonnes and 1.3 million tonnes, respectively	View Download
12/06/2020	SA agricultural machinery sales up notably in May 2020 South Africa’s agriculture and allied industries have thus far not been as hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic as other sectors of the economy. The case in point is the tractor and combine harvester sales, which were up 19% and 15%, respectively, year on year in May 2020, with 432 units and 31 units sold. Primarily, the classification of the agricultural sector and its value chains to operate during the lockdown period as part of essential services was a key catalyst to sustaining the sales last month.	View Download
09/03/2020	SA tractor sales remained subdued in February 2020 After falling to the lowest monthly level in six years in January 2020, South Africa’s tractor sales recovered by 46% m/m in February 2020 to 485 units. While encouraging, this is still 8% lower than the corresponding period in 2019.	View Download
03/11/2019	Recovery in agricultural machinery sales speaks to increased plantings South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales data confirms the Crop Estimates Committee’s view of increased summer grain and oilseed plantings between January and February 2019 in the western parts of the country.	View Download
05/07/2019	A further decline in SA agricultural machinery sales The South African agricultural machinery sales painted a slightly negative picture in April 2019. Tractor sales were down by 6% y/y and combine harvesters down by 21% y/y, both exceeded our expectations of a 3% respective decline.	View Download
02/07/2019	outh Africa’s agricultural machinery industry experienced a rough start of the year with tractor and harvester sales down by 26% y/y and 50% y/y in January 2019 While we didn’t anticipate the magnitude of a decline in sales, the trend is not surprising as some farmers made notable purchases of equipment in the past few months, and also the fact that the 2018/19 summer crop production season has not been favourable due to dryness in the western parts of the country. In the near term, we don’t expect any recovery in sales as production prospects remain bleak for major summer grains and oilseeds.	View Download
15/01/2019	SA agricultural machinery sales increased in 2018, but 2019 might show a decline South Africa’s tractor sales were up by 4% y/y in December 2018, with 434 units sold. This came as a surprise for two reasons. First, a large part of the summer grain and oilseed-growing areas experienced dryness in the months leading to December which led to a delay in planting in the western areas of South Africa. Second, December 2018 had the highest sales figure for this particular month in a dataset starting from 2014, despite the fact that there were already robust sales in the preceding months, totalling 6 246 units, 4% higher than the first 11 months of 2017	View Download
11/12/2018	SA tractor sales reach highest level since October 2014 October is traditionally a good month for South African tractor sales as summer grain and oilseed farmers are typically preparing for the planting process. This year did not disappoint, the sales reached 817 units, which is highest levels since October 2014. South Africa’s tractor sales for the first 10 months of this year amounted to 5 818 units, which is 9% higher than the corresponding period last year. The combine harvester sales also rebounded to 29 units in October 2018, which is double the previous month’s sales. This was mainly underpinned by the ongoing winter crop harvest process.	View Download
12/11/2018	South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales slow in November 2018 The decline in South Africa’s tractor and combine harvesters sales to 428 and 9 units, respectively, in November 2018 comes as no surprise as most farmers bought some equipment in the past couple of months. This is evident from South Africa’s tractor sales for the first 11 months of this year, which amounted to 6 246 units, up by 4% higher than the corresponding period last year. Over the same period, the combine harvester sales amounted to 194 units, up by a percentage point from the first 11 months of 2017. While the annual uptick in agricultural machinery sales signals the potential for increased production in the sector, especially in the case of tractor sales for the year so far, the drier weather conditions in most parts of the country have stalled planting, and have raised concerns about the 2018/19 grains and oilseeds harvest.	View Download
10/11/2018	Solid recovery in South African tractor sales in September 2018 After experiencing a double-digit decline in August 2018 due to delayed harvest, amongst other factors, South Africa tractor sales recovered by 11% y/y in September 2018, with 612 units sold (Figure 1). This somewhat signals farmers’ readiness for the 2018/19 summer crop production season which commenced this month, although planting activity hasn’t progressed much thus far. Broadly speaking, this is an encouraging reading as we continue to monitor the investment path in the South African agricultural sector following a slowdown in the Agribusiness Confidence Index in the third quarter due to continued uncertainty underpinned by the current land policy reform proposal, amongst other issues..	View Download
09/11/2018	South African tractor sales fell by 18% y/y in August 2018 Following a solid positive growth over the past five months, South African tractor sales fell by 18% y/y last month, with 487 units sold. This decline, which far exceeds our expectations of a 5% y/y drop, was partially underpinned by delayed summer grain harvesting activity which partially strained farmers’ cash flows.	View Download
01/11/2018	South African tractor sales grew by 19% y/y in December 2017 South African tractor sales expanded by 19% y/y in December 2017, with 417 units sold. However, this was down by 26% when compared to the previous month, which mirrors a slowdown in field activity as summer crop planting was almost complete in most areas.	View Download
02/08/2018	South African tractor sales for January up 10% y/y After the solid performance of 19% y/y increase in December 2017, the South African tractor sales were again up by 10% y/y in January 2018, with 527 units sold. This was somewhat surprising given that the area planted with summer crops declined in the 2017/18 production year.	View Download
08/06/2018	South African tractor sales grew by 5% y/y in July 2018 The South African tractor sales continued to rise in July, albeit at a slower pace than the previous month, up by 5% y/y with 525 units sold. While lower than our expectations of 578 units, this is the highest tractor sales figure for the corresponding month since 2015. In the same period, the harvester sales declined by 8% y/y, with 12 units sold.	View Download
14/03/2018	South African tractor sales for February 2018 fell by 12% y/y Subsequent to a solid 10% y/y increase in January 2018, the South African tractor sales fell by 12% y/y last month, with 595 units sold. While February is typically one of the months with the highest tractor sales, just before the end of the financial year, this time around most purchases occurred in January, which explains the softening in last month’s activity.	View Download

SA agriculture labour market

Year	Publication
12/11/2024	SA's primary agricultural employment improves in Q3, 2024 While the 2023-24 mid-summer drought has been the central theme of the downbeat performance of South Africa's agriculture this year, we see a welcome positive change in the jobs data. Statistics South Africa data show that primary agriculture employment improved by 4% from the previous quarter to 935k jobs in the third quarter. However, from an annual perspective, the performance is weak, down 2% year-on-year. Still, the primary agricultural employment of 935k people is well above the long-term jobs of 799k. The poor annual performance mirrors the harsh summer season we are leaving behind.	View Download
04/09/2024	South Africa's agricultural fortunes contracted in Q2, 2024 After a robust expansion of 13,5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2024, South Africa's agricultural gross value added contracted by 2,1% in the second quarter. This is unsurprising. South Africa's agriculture has gone through the severe impact of the El Niño-induced drought in February and March, which weighed on crop yield. For example, South Africa's 2024-25 summer crop harvest is down 22% from the previous season, estimated at 15,69 million tonnes. Moreover, the livestock industry, which accounts for nearly half the sector's value, faces relatively higher feed costs and lingering animal diseases (particularly foot-and-mouth disease), which all explain the underperformance this quarter.	View Download
14/08/2024	South Africa's primary agricultural employment slowed in Q2 but remains well above long-term levels The effects of the recent El Niño-induced mid-summer drought are starting to show in South Africa's agricultural jobs data. For example, the figures released by Statistics South Africa today show that employment in primary agriculture was down 5% quarter-on-quarter to 896k in the second quarter of 2024. From an annual basis perspective, the performance is also weak, although up 0,2% from the second quart of 2023. Still, the primary agricultural employment of 896k people remains well above the long-term jobs of 799k and generally reflects the harsh summer season we are leaving behind.	View Download
14/05/2024	South Africa's primary agricultural employment lifted in the first quarter of 2024 While South Africa's agriculture has had a rough start to the year, characterised by El Niño-induced drought, the employment conditions remain encouraging. The data released by Statistics South Africa today shows that employment in primary agriculture lifted by 6% year-on-year to 941 000 in the first quarter of 2024. This is also up 2% from the last quarter of 2023. Admittedly, the significant drought damage has been concentrated on the summer grains and oilseed regions, not across all agricultural subsectors, which somewhat explains the resilience in job data. Moreover, there could also be a lag in fully accounting for agriculture's financial pressures and the impact on employment after that.	View Download
22/02/2024	Agriculture still employs a significant number of South Africans After a notable jump in the third quarter of 2023 to 956,000, South Africa's primary agricultural employment fell by 4% quarter-on-quarter to 920,000 in the last quarter of 2023. Jobs declined mainly in the Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and Limpopo.	View Download
29/11/2022	SA agricultural jobs up 5% y/y in Q3, 2022 Although South Africa's agricultural sector faced numerous challenges in the 2021/22 production season – from tough production conditions in grains and oilseeds, disease outbreaks in livestock, and trade barriers in horticulture – the sector sustained jobs. In the third quarter of this year, there were 873 000 people in primary agriculture. This is up by 5% year-on-year (while down marginally by 0,1 quarterly). Notably, this is well above the long-term agricultural employment of 780 000. As with the previous quarter, the increased farm activity in some vegetables, fruits and field crops sustained robust employment.	View Download
04/06/2022	SA agriculture registers positive jobs growth in Q1, 2022 South Africa's 2021/22 agricultural production season started on a rough footing. The excessive rains in some regions of the country damaged some field crops and vegetables and necessitated replanting. We feared that the effects of the rough start of the year would show in primary agriculture jobs numbers. Positively, the data released by Statistics South Africa today shows a 7% year-on-year improvement in primary agriculture jobs to 844 389 jobs in the first quarter of this year.	View Download
30/11/2021	Solid SA agriculture jobs growth is a reflection of a healthy sector This year, South Africa's agricultural sector's exceptional performance, which is reflected in robust production volumes for the 2021 season and export volumes in the first three quarters of this year, is also evident in the jobs data. The Quarterly Labour Force Survey data released by Statistics South Africa this morning showed that in the third quarter of 2021, agricultural employment increased by 3% y/y to 829 000. This is well above the long-term agricultural employment of 780 000. Admittedly, the third quarter of each year is typically not a busy period for agriculture; hence employment is down 4% from the second quarter – a busy harvesting period for field crops, with seasonal employment opportunities.	View Download
24/08/2021	SA agricultural employment rebounds in Q2, 2021 After falling to the lowest levels since 2014 in the first quarter of this year, South Africa's agricultural employment rebounded in the second quarter to 862 000 (up 8% year on year). This is unsurprising because of bumper harvests on field crops and horticulture this season. Moreover, the second quarter of each year is a period of higher activity in most agricultural industries, with harvesting under way, which requires increased labour. Notably, the scenario of higher agricultural commodity prices in a year of large harvests also boosted farmers' incomes and, therefore, could retain and increase employment, even if seasonal.	View Download
01/06/2021	SA agricultural employment down 8% y/y in Q1, 2021 South Africa's agricultural sector is in its second consecutive year of good performance supported by favourable rainfall and expansion in plantings. In 2020, the sector's gross value added expanded by 13,1% y/y, and this year will likely also be another year of good performance. While we expect better crop harvests than in 2020, the expansion could be 5% y/y because last year’s base is already quite strong. Yet, the agricultural jobs data continue to disappoint. In the first quarter of 2021, South Africa's agricultural jobs were down by 8% y/y, with 792 000 people employed. This is the lowest level since 2014, which was a drought year. But we are not in a drought season at the moment. The decline in jobs seems to be concentrated within industries affected by various regulations in the lockdown period, such as the horticulture (wine grapes) and game industries.	View Download
24/02/2021	SA agricultural employment down 8% y/y in Q4, 2020 Although South Africa's agricultural economy performed robustly in 2020, possibly grew by between 10-13%, according to our and Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy estimates, employment numbers remain disappointing. The data released by Statistics South Africa this morning shows that South Africa's primary agricultural jobs were down 8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2020, with 810 209 people employed. There was a decline in employment across most provinces except for the Eastern Cape, Gauteng and Mpumalanga, which registered job gains from the last quarter of 2019. The most considerable headcount losses were in the Western Cape, amounting to about 51 000 below 2019. KwaZulu-Natal followed this, with jobs down by 21 000 compared to the last quarter of 2019.	View Download
01/12/2020	SA agricultural employment held up in Q3, 2020, but there are disparities across provinces South Africa’s primary agricultural employment in the third quarter of the year improved by 1% from the previous quarter to 807 882. This slight quarterly recovery corresponds with the reopening of the economy and certain agricultural commodities during that period. This is important because while the majority of agriculture remained operational since the start of the lockdown period, the sector could not entirely avoid job losses as demand for some products in the sector was somewhat disrupted. When compared to the corresponding period in 2019, employment in this sector was down by 8%.	View Download
08/09/2020	SA agricultural jobs decline by 5% y/y in Q2, 2020 The Quarterly Labour Force Survey data for the second quarter of 2020 showed that South Africa’s primary agricultural employment declined by 5% (or 43 029 jobs) from the corresponding period last year to 799 033. This is unsurprising as the social-distancing regulations introduced at the end of March 2020, to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, meant that farmers and agribusiness were not able to increase employment, especially of seasonal labour in the same way they would have in the absence of the pandemic, in years of an agricultural bumper harvest as in 2019/20 season. Also, the mild decline in employment confirms our anticipation that farmers might have kept most of the labour force that was already on farms in the first quarter to assist with the harvesting process of horticulture and field crops.	View Download
11/02/2020	SA agriculture jobs up marginally in Q4, 2019 The Quarterly Labour Force Survey data for the fourth quarter of 2019 show that South Africa’s primary agricultural employment increased by 4.2% (or 36 000 jobs) from the corresponding period last year to 885 000. The notable job gains were mainly in the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Free State and Limpopo. This was largely in the horticulture, field crops and livestock subsectors. These activities, however, were not evenly spread across all provinces. We believe that the Western Cape, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal job gains were mainly in horticulture and field crops (specifically winter crops). While the slight improvement in the livestock subsector employment could be in the Free State. Other provinces, namely the Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, North West, Gauteng and Mpumalanga experienced a reduction in agricultural employment over the observed period. But this was overshadowed by the improvement in the aforementioned provinces, hence, on balance, South Africa’s primary agriculture sector registered employment net gains from the corresponding period in 2018.	View Download
30/07/2019	What’s needed for SA agriculture to boost jobs? The latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey data (Q2: 2019) show that South Africa’s primary agricultural employment fell by 0.2% from the corresponding period last year to 842 000 (Figure 1). The subsectors that faced a notable reduction were mainly field crops, the game industry and forestry. In the case of field crops, the reduction in employment was unsurprising following a reduction in activity in the fields on the back of a poor harvest in the 2018/19 season, all of which is underpinned by unfavourable weather conditions earlier in the season. From a regional perspective, a notable decline in employment was recorded in the Northern Cape, Free State and Limpopo, whilst other provinces saw a marginal uptick (Figure 2).	View Download
14/05/2019	Only an increase in area farmed would notably induce employment in SA agriculture The latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey data (Q1: 2019) show that South Africa’s primary agricultural employment fell by 1% from the corresponding period last year to 837 000 (Figure 1). The subsectors that faced a notable reduction were field crops, livestock and forestry, partly due to a reduction in area plantings on the back of unfavourable weather conditions in the case of field crops. From a regional perspective, the provinces that faced a notable decline were the Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo and Mpumalanga (Figure 2). Meanwhile, other provinces saw a marginal uptick. While the first quarter agricultural employment data does not bring much excitement, it is by no means an underperformance if we compare it to the average five-year employment of 829 000.	View Download
12/02/2019	Slight improvement in SA agricultural jobs South Africa’s primary agricultural employment improved marginally to 849 000 jobs in the last quarter of 2018 compared to the previous quarter. Although this data is encouraging in a climate where South Africa is exploring strategies that could unlock job creation in the agricultural sector, the country is still far behind its target of creating a million agricultural jobs by 2030 as envisaged in the National Development Plan. What's more, if the underutilised land in the former homelands and other parts of the country are not brought into full production with a key focus on labour-intensive sub-sectors, notable job creation in South Africa’s agriculture will not materialise. Fortunately, the President in his State of the Nation Address (SONA) signalled a positive message on this.	View Download
30/10/2018	SA agricultural employment up in Q3, but far from government target The benefits of improvements in the Western Cape’s weather conditions are evident in the third quarter agricultural jobs data, which boosted the overall sectoral employment by 3% y/y to 842 000 jobs. The other provinces that made a notable contribution were Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, North West and Limpopo, through the increased activity in the field crops and livestock subsectors. While this is encouraging in a climate where South Africa is exploring strategies that could unlock job creation in the agricultural sector, the country is still far behind its target of creating a million agricultural jobs by 2030 as envisaged in the National Development Plan. What's more, if the underutilised land in the former homelands and other parts of the country are not brought into full production with a key focus on labour intensive crops, notable job creation in agriculture will remain a pipedream.	View Download
31/07/2018	SA agricultural employment up by 1% y/yin Q2, 2018 The Quarterly Labour Force Survey conducted by Statistics South Africa showed a percentage point annual increase in agricultural employment in the second quarter of this year to 843 000 jobs (Figure1).This was supported by improvement in employment in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape,Limpopo and the Northern Cape. This is underpinned by increased activity in the grain and horticultural fields during the harvesting period. Although the improvement in agricultural jobs is an encouraging development,it is worth noting that South Africa is still far behind its target of creating a million agricultural jobs by 2030 as envisaged in the National Development Plan.	View Download
13/02/2018	SA agricultural employment down by 8% y/y in Q4, 2017 After experiencing a decline in employment in the first three quarters of 2017, South Africa’s agricultural sector recorded a 5% q/q rebound in employment in the fourth quarter to 849 000 jobs. This quarterly increase was mainly in field crops, horticulture and livestock sub-sectors. The provinces driving it were the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu Natal. Overall, while the quarterly uptick is encouraging, agricultural employment is still down when compared to the corresponding period the previous year.	View Download

SA agriculture GDP

Year	Publication
25/09/2024	South Africa's agricultural fortunes contracted in Q2, 2024 After a robust expansion of 13,5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2024, South Africa's agricultural gross value added contracted by 2,1% in the second quarter. This is unsurprising. South Africa's agriculture has gone through the severe impact of the El Niño-induced drought in February and March, which weighed on crop yield. For example, South Africa's 2024-25 summer crop harvest is down 22% from the previous season, estimated at 15,69 million tonnes. Moreover, the livestock industry, which accounts for nearly half the sector's value, faces relatively higher feed costs and lingering animal diseases (particularly foot-and-mouth disease), which all explain the underperformance this quarter.	View Download
05/03/2024	South Africa's agricultural gross value added contracted sharply in 2023 South Africa's agricultural sector faced several challenges in 2023, but we didn't think the overall annual performance would drop sharply. Along with the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), we expected a mild contraction in 2023 because of the animal disease challenges in the livestock and poultry sub-sector. But the figures released today by Statistics South Africa show that the gross value added fell notably by 12,2% year-on-year.	View Download
13/06/2023	SA agriculture registers a sharp quarterly contraction The numbers released by Statistics South Africa today show that in the first quarter of 2023, agriculture gross value added sharply contracted by -12,3% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted). There are a few elements that explain this sharp contraction. First, the field crops had a tough start to the season because of excessive rains, which disrupted and delayed plantings by over a month in some areas. Second, the cattle industry still feels the adverse effects of foot and mouth disease, leading to a decline in slaughtering activity. We see similar issues of animal disease challenges also in the pork industry. Lastly, one can not underestimate the impact of load-shedding disruptions on poultry production. However, the government has since introduced various measures to ease the load-shedding burden on farmers, such as load curtailment, expansion of the diesel rebate to the food value chain, and, most recently, the launch of the Agro-Energy Fund.	View Download
08/03/2023	SA agriculture gross value added slowed in 2022 After a solid performance of 8,8% y/y in 2021, we thought South Africa's agricultural gross value added would contract mildly in 2022. But the data released today by Statistics South Africa paints a slightly positive picture, showing that the sector expanded somewhat by 0,3% y/y. We based our view of a potential contraction on the decline in some vital field crop harvests, such as maize, which is down 5% y/y in the 2021/22 season, estimated at 15,5 million tonnes. Moreover, the poor performance in sugar cane production in 2021/22, and the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the livestock industry, which spread for the first time in six of South Africa's nine provinces, were additional risks. The base effects after two years of solid growth, where the sector expanded by 14,9% y/y in 2020 and 8,8% y/y in 2021, was an additional factor to our view of a possible annual contraction in the gross value added in 2022.	View Download
06/12/2022	SA agriculture gross value added rebounds in Q3 After contracting for two consecutive quarters, South Africa's agricultural gross value added expanded by 19,2% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the third quarter of this year. The better yields of some field crops (mainly summer grains and oilseeds) and horticulture, combined with relatively higher prices, specifically grains and oilseeds, underpin this improvement. Also worth noting is that the summer grains harvest, typically in the year's second quarter, was delayed by roughly a month and fell into the third quarter this year. In a slightly more technical sense, the weak growth in the last quarter also created a lower base, setting the ground for a recovery in the third quarter.	View Download
06/09/2022	SA agriculture gross value-added contracts in Q2 The rough start of the 2021/22 agricultural season has been muted in several sectoral economic indicators. But the data released this morning by Statistics South Africa put the picture in perspective. The agricultural gross value added contracted by 7,7% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter of this year. This follows a revised contraction of 2,4% in the first quarter of the year. These results are unsurprising as various subsectors of agriculture face varied challenges. For example, the livestock industry, which accounts for roughly half of the sector's gross value added, continues to suffer from foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks and rising feed costs. Moreover, some field crops' harvests aren't as robust as the 2020/21 season due to heavy rains at the start of the season, albeit well above the long-term harvest levels. These constraints have undermined the robust activity we saw in field crops such as soybeans, sunflower seeds, and various fruits, which promised to provide some activity at the start of the year.	View Download
09/03/2022	SA agriculture registers an 8% y/y expansion in 2021 After a solid performance of 13,4% y/y in 2020, South Africa's agricultural sector remained on the positive growth path in 2021, registering an 8,3% y/y expansion, according to data released this morning by Statistics South Africa. This is unsurprising as the 2020/21 agricultural season was one of the best in South Africa's agriculture, with near-record harvests in some crops.	View Download
07/12/2021	Agricultural sector's poor performance in the third quarter likely to be a temporary blip Most high-frequency data of the past couple of months have painted a positive picture of South Africa's agricultural economy. However, the figures released by Statistics South Africa this morning surprised on the downside, with a 13,6% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) contraction in the third quarter of this year. This is understandable as the year's third quarter is a relatively quiet period in agriculture, with much of the harvest activity distributed in other quarters of the year. This downswing was also reflected in the recent agricultural jobs data, which fell by 4% quarter-on-quarter in the year's third quarter (employment increased on a year-on-year basis by 3%).	View Download
08/09/2021	SA's agricultural economy in good shape The second-quarter GDP data released by Statistics South Africa this week confirmed the reality we have been observing on the ground, i.e. South Africa's agricultural economy is in good shape. After contracting by 1,0% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of this year, the agricultural gross value-added expanded by 6,2% in the second quarter. This improvement is supported by increased production of field crops, horticulture, and relatively better production conditions within the livestock subsector.	View Download
15/06/2021	SA’s agriculture in good shape despite a quarterly blip The GDP data for the first quarter which shows that SA’s agricultural output unexpectedly contracted by 3.2% quarter on quarter on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis should not be of lasting concern. Stats SA attributes the underperformance to “lower production of field crops and animal products”. But this is a temporary blip and shouldn’t be regarded as a worse season than the robust 2020. Also, important to highlight is that on a year-on-year basis, the agricultural gross value added expanded strongly by 7,5%. The sector is set for one of the best years on record, and such improvements should be reflected in the data in the coming quarters.	View Download
08/09/2020	SA farm economy on a firm footing South Africa’s agricultural sector was the only shining light in the second quarter of this year. The sector’s gross value-added expanded by 15.1% q/q on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis following an expansion of 27.8% q/q in the first quarter. This is, in part, because most of the sector was classified as essential and didn’t close down during the strict lockdown period, whose effect extended to the second quarter. Most importantly it is due to the fact that this is a recovery year in agricultural output across all subsectors (field crops, horticulture and livestock) following prolonged periods of drought, and a surge in exports (supported by the weak exchange rate). These were also the key drivers of the expansion in the first quarter of the year.	View Download
03/03/2020	SA farm economy to recover in 2020 South Africa’s farming economy was not in good shape in 2019. This is clear from the agricultural GDP data released this morning by Statistics South Africa. The data show a 6.9% year-on-year contraction for 2019, which is a second consecutive year of contraction in South Africa’s farm economy. While worse than our initial expectations of a 4.0% y/y contraction, this is unsurprising. The output of various crops and horticulture produce declined notably in 2019 because of the drought, while the livestock was negatively affected by the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.	View Download
03/09/2019	SA agricultural economy contracted in Q2, 2019 Although South Africa’s economy has recovered from the previous quarter’s economic performance with a 3.1% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted growth rate (q/q saar), agriculture did not contribute to the improvement. After a strong contraction (16.8% -- revised numbers) during the first quarter of 2019, we were optimistic that things would turn around for South African agriculture. We hoped that base effects coupled with improved horticulture production would trigger a recovery for the sector. However, we were wrong.	View Download
04/06/2019	South African agricultural fortunes shrink in Q1, 2019 South Africa’s agricultural economy started the year on a bad footing, contracting by 13.2% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised rate (q/q saar). This came as a surprise as we expected a positive reading on the back of improvement in some horticultural subsectors, and the winter crops harvest. At the heart of it though, the contraction is in line with the numbers that are coming out of key horticultural industries that harvested during the first quarter of the year.	View Download
04/12/2018	South African Agricultural Economy Recovers in Q3, 2018 After entering a technical recession in the second quarter of the year, the South African agricultural economy recovered in the third quarter, boosted by higher production of horticulture and animal products. Within the horticultural subsector, the most notable performer was the citrus industry which has thus far exported a record 2 million tonnes for the year. The uptick in animal products somewhat mirrors the recovery in the livestock sector after the 2015-16 drought period. Nonetheless, we still believe that the agricultural sector will contract in 2018 due to generally lower output of major agricultural commodities compared to 2017.	View Download
06/03/2017	SA agricultural economy grew by 17.7% in 2017 After an extended contraction in 2015 and 2016, the South African agricultural economy grew by 17.7% in 2017. This was boosted by strong output in almost all the subsectors, such as field crops, livestock and horticulture, amongst others. In fact, this is also clear from trade data, where the country’s agricultural exports grew past the US$10 billion mark for the first time.	View Download

Crop production update

Year	Publication
06/11/2024	The market dynamics of the South African wheat industry At the end of September, South Africa closed its 2023-24 marketing year for wheat. We had a decent harvest of 2,05 million tonnes during the season, just above the five-year average harvest of 1,98 million tonnes. South Africa achieved this harvest despite a challenging production season. For example, the Western Cape, which produces nearly two-thirds of South Africa's wheat crop, suffered heavy floods in September 2023 of the previous season, which, at the time, had raised fears of potential significant crop losses. But the wheat fields recovered towards the end of the year and subsequently delivered a decent crop.	View Download
29/10/2024	SA farmers will likely plant a slightly bigger area for grains and oilseeds in the 2024-25 season After a challenging 2023-24 summer crop season, which saw South Africa's grains and oilseeds production falling by 24% year-on-year to 15,39 million tonnes, the recovery period may be in sight. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee this afternoon shows that South African farmers intend to plant 4,47 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds in the 2024-25 season. This is up mildly by 1% from the previous season.	View
07/10/2024	We remain upbeat about South Africa's 2024-25 agricultural production season It is perhaps a reasonable choice to remain optimistic about the upcoming 2024-25 summer season in South Africa's agriculture. The global weather forecasters paint encouraging prospects of weather conditions. For example, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University continue to forecast La Niña occurrence.	View Download
01/10/2024	Some optimism about South Africa's 2024-25 winter crop production South Africa's agricultural sector is currently in what some would consider a relatively quiet period before we start the busy period again in a few weeks. Farmers will soon be tilling the land for summer crops from mid-October. Towards the end of November, the table grape industry will also start with its harvesting period, and there will be more activities from that period onwards. The winter crop is the main crop currently in season, with farmers starting the season in May.	View
01/10/2024	The impact of the mid-summer drought on South Africa's 2023-24 crop continues to bite South Africa is on its eighth summer grain and oilseeds production forecast for the 2023-24 season. There are two more monthly reports to follow. Given that we are at the tail end of the season and will soon be in the optimal planting window for the 2024-25 production season from mid-October, we thought there would be no major revisions of the production figures at this late stage. But this has not been a typical season, and the lower producer deliveries we have been observing over the past few weeks are not only a function of on-farm storage but a poor harvest. Indeed, we struggled with a mid-summer drought in February and March, undermining crop yield potential in various regions.	View
04/09/2024	Mixed prospects for South Africa's 2024-25 winter crop production South Africa's 2024-25 winter crop season is underway, and some regions of the Western Cape (the largest province for winter crops), have received excellent rains so far. Some areas of the Western Cape may have received more rain than ideal earlier in the season, leading to fears of possible poor yields. But we are still early in the season, and there will be clarity about the yield potential only in the coming months.	View Download
28/08/2024	The Crop Estimates Committee lowered South Africa's 2023-24 summer grain and oilseeds production forecast South Africa is on its seventh summer grain and oilseeds production forecast for the 2023-24 season. There are three more monthly reports to follow. Given that we are at the tail end of the season and will soon start planting for the 2024-25 production season in October, there typically are minimal adjustments on the figures at this stage. But this has not been a typical season. We struggled with a mid-summer drought in February and March, undermining crop yield potential in various regions.	View Download
26/07/2024	South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee mildly lowered the 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed production forecast South Africa's agricultural sector has various institutions, organizations and committees that all play specific roles in supporting the sector's growth and sustainability. One of the vital committees housed at the Department of Agriculture is the Crop Estimates Committee. This Committee benefits on skills, among others, from government, academia, and the private sector. Its main task is to provide production forecasts for winter and summer grains and oilseed. These data are crucial to understanding the country's food security conditions and often influence the market prices of grains and oilseeds in season. For each season, the Crop Estimates Committee typically releases about ten reports. From the fourth monthly report, there is generally some certainty about the expected crop.	View Download
27/06/2024	SA's summer grains and oilseed production estimate lifted mildly South Africa's summer grains and oilseed harvest is in full swing nationwide, and some crops are nearly complete. Thus, the crop size estimates we have at hand are unlikely to change much and possibly represent an actual picture of the harvest. For example, this afternoon, the Crop Estimates Committee lifted the 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed harvest by 0,6% from last month to 16,0 million tonnes. Still, this is down 20% year-on-year, reflecting the severe impact of the mid-summer drought. The monthly slight upward adjustment of the summer grains and oilseed harvest size is mainly because of the notable uptick in the yellow maize production estimate, while other crops remained roughly unchanged from last month. This again confirms our earlier point that the data we have, which is the fifth production estimate, may not be adjusted much from now on.	View Download
28/05/2024	SA's summer grains and oilseed production estimate slightly lowered from last month We appreciate that the minds of many South Africans are on tomorrow's national elections, but food matters remain vital in the midst of all. Thus, reflecting on the latest Crop Estimates Committee's (CEC) forecasts for the 2023/24 summer crop production season is valuable. This is a fourth production estimate for the season, and the harvest across the country is underway, so we may put more weight on the accuracy of this figure than our tentative view in the previous estimates.	View Download
25/04/2024	SA's summer crop production estimate lifted mildly from last month Many, including ourselves, may have been a bit pessimistic about the 2023/24 summer crop growing conditions when we signalled a potential further downward revision of the harvest estimate this month. The data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee showed mild upward adjustments in the crop size from last month's figures. South Africa's 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed harvest is estimated at 16,0 million tonnes, up 1% from last month. Indeed, this is not a cause for celebration. The figure does not change the reality that we have been through a challenging season of El Niño-induced drought and heatwave in February and March that weighed on the summer grains and oilseed harvest in various regions of the country. The current estimated harvest of 16,0 million tonnes is down 20% from the 2022/23 production season.	View Download
26/03/2024	South Africa's summer crop production prospects remain bleak Since the release of the previous report of South Africa's Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) at the end of February 2024, the weather conditions across the country have remained unfavourable. Thus, we are not surprised that the CEC further lowered its production forecasts for South Africa's summer grain and oilseeds this afternoon.	View Download
29/02/2024	SA 2023/24 summer crop production forecasts lowered notably The excessive heat and scant rains across South Africa are a significant concern for farmers, particularly in the summer grains and oilseed-producing regions. The 2023/24 summer crop season started on favourable footing. We received widespread rains, which was unusual in an El Niño season, which would typically start with drier weather conditions. Those good early-season rains led us to believe the country would have a decent harvest in the 2023/24 production season. But this view has now changed. We worry about possible poor harvests if there is no widespread rain during these closing days of February into the first week of March. Indeed, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) also fears the possible decline in the summer grains and oilseed harvest. Its first production estimate for the 2023/24 season placed the summer grains and oilseed harvest at 17,4 million tonnes, down 13% y/y. This is a function of a reduction in planted area and the expected lower yields in some regions.	View Download
30/01/2024	SA could have a decent summer grains and oilseed harvest in the 2023/24 season South Africa could have yet another decent summer grains and oilseeds harvest in the 2023/24 production season. The data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee puts the preliminary area plantings for summer grains and oilseeds at 4,41 million hectares, up by 0,4% y/y (albeit down mildly from 4,48 million hectares of the intended area when the season started). This increase is not limited to a few crops but across most summer crops except for soybeans, where plantings possibly fell by 10% y/y to 1,04 million hectares (which is still well above the 5-year average area of 867 240 hectares). The area plantings for other major grains, such as maize and sunflower seed, is also well above the 5-year average.	View Download
30/08/2023	South Africa has a robust summer and winter crop harvest The data released this afternoon by South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) paints a positive picture of the 2022/23 summer crop season and the 2023/24 winter crop season. Regarding the summer crops, we have the seventh 2022/23 summer crop production estimates, and these data are unlikely to change in the following three updates for the season.	View Download
27/07/2023	South Africa has a favourable summer and winter crop season With the sixth summer crop production estimates for the 2022/23 season out, one can take these data with confidence that there will likely be no further significant adjustments. The upcoming four updates will likely reinforce our optimistic view, as farmers are completing the harvest activity, and yields remain high.	View Download
17/07/2023	Some brief comments on the ongoing grain export issues in the Black Sea region Today Russia halted the Black Sea Grain Deal, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in July 2022, to combat a global food crisis. The implications of this decision will be clear over the coming days and weeks.	View Download
10/07/2023	Global Food Price Index continued to moderate in June 2023 The FAO Food Price Index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, averaged 122 points in June 2023, down by 1% from the previous month and as much as 23% below the peak it reached in March 2022. The month-on-month decline in the index in June reflected drops in the indices for sugar, vegetable oils, cereals and dairy products.	View Download
27/06/2023	South Africa's 2022/23 maize production estimate is the second largest on record With summer crop harvest underway across South Africa, the recent production estimates are more reliable and reflect the large yields farmers continue to reap. Hence, we were not surprised this afternoon when South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee lifted the country's 2022/23 commercial maize production estimate by 1% from last month to 16,35 million tonnes. This crop is 6% more than the 2021/22 season and the second-largest harvest on record. The expected ample harvest is primarily on the back of large yields, as the area planted is slightly down from the 2021/22 season. About 8,64 million tonnes is white maize, with 7,71 million tonnes being yellow maize. A crop of 16,35 million tonnes implies South Africa will have sufficient supplies to meet domestic maize needs of roughly 11,40 million tonnes and have over 3,00 million tonnes for export markets in the 2023/24 marketing year.	View Download
28/04/2023	SA expects ample summer grains and oilseeds harvest in the 2022/23 season This afternoon, the Crop Estimates Committee's data reaffirmed our optimism about South Africa's 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds production season. Maize production is estimated at 15,9 million tonnes, up mildly from last month's estimate and 3% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest. The current harvest is the third-largest harvest on record. The harvest improvement is primarily on the back of expected large yields, as the area planted is slightly down from the 2021/22 season. About 8,4 million tonnes is white maize, with 7,5 million tonnes being yellow maize. A crop of 15,9 million tonnes implies that South Africa will have sufficient supplies to meet domestic needs of roughly 11,4 million tonnes and remain with about 3,0 million tonnes for export markets in the 2023/24 marketing year that starts in May.	View Download
29/03/2023	SA is in for another ample grains and oilseeds harvest We have now received additional comforting information that the erratic weather conditions at the start of the 2022/23 summer production season had minimal impact on South Africa’s summer grains and oilseeds. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee this afternoon places South Africa’s 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds production at 19,6 million tonnes, up 2% from last month’s figure and 5% higher than the previous season. This is primarily on the back of expected higher yields as the overall planted area for summer grains and oilseeds are 4,4 million hectares, roughly unchanged from the previous season. The persistent load-shedding raised concerns that areas under irrigation could receive poor yields. Thankfully, the favourable rainfall, at a moderate pace, from mid-February provided a much-needed breather and improved crop conditions. Within summer grains and oilseeds, roughly 20% of maize and 15% of soybeans are produced under irrigation. The various energy interventions, such as possible load curtailment and expansion of renewables, are some options that could assist the irrigation regions in the medium term.	View Download
06/02/2023	South Africa's rice imports to remain at stable levels as of 2022, but rice in global prices will present new challenges After a year of generally subdued global rice prices, this year started with a notable increase in prices from various origins. With South Africa being a net importer of rice, the worldwide surge of prices presents upside risks to consumer food price inflation. The comforting part, however, is that South Africa will likely import the same volume of rice as the previous year. The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts South Africa's 2023 rice imports at 1,1 million tonnes. This is roughly unchanged from 2022, when about 73% of the imports originated from Thailand, 23% from India, and the rest from various countries, including India, Pakistan, Brazil, and Vietnam. These origins will likely remain the same in 2023.	View Download
31/01/2023	South Africa's wheat production estimates lowered amid poor yields in parts of the Western Cape The drier weather conditions in the Western Cape, a major wheat producer in South Africa, have weighed on the 2022/23 wheat harvest. The impact of lower yields in parts of the province is evident in the recent Crop Estimates Committee's wheat production update, which placed the province's crop at 954 000 tonnes, down from 1,26 million tonnes in the 2021/22 season.	View Download
31/01/2023	South Africa's 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds plantings remain at decent levels Since the start of the 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds production season, we have maintained a positive view of the production conditions. The robust tractor sales, the La Niña-induced rains, and the relatively higher commodity prices were some of the factors that pointed to a decent area for summer crops in the 2022/23 season. The data recently released by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) broadly mirrors our optimism, placing the 2022/23 total area plantings for summer crops at 4,31 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds in the 2022/23 season. This is down by 0,7% from the previous season, and 0,9% from the intentions to plant data released earlier in the season.	View Download
15/12/2022	The USDA marginally lowered 2022/23 global wheat and maize production estimates, while lifting soybeans This past week the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly flagship report, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. This report provides insight into the production conditions of the major grains and oilseeds.	View Download
05/12/2022	South Africa’s wheat production estimates roughly unchanged from October South Africa is set to have a decent wheat harvest in the 2022/23 season. Last week, the Crop Estimates Committee released its fourth production estimates which show a mild improvement from October figures. The current harvest estimate is 2,2 million tonnes, which is roughly the same as the 2021/22 season, the largest harvest in two decades. Farmers lifted the area plantings to 566 800 hectares, from 523 500 hectares in the previous year. This was on the back of attractive prices following a surge in wheat prices after Russia invaded Ukraine, as well as good soil moisture in various wheat-growing regions of the country.	View Download
04/10/2022	CEC lifts South Africa's 2021/22 maize and soybeans harvest estimate further in September data While our attention is shifting towards the 2022/23 summer crop season for South Africa which starts this month, the updates from the 2021/22 season are worth monitoring as they give us indications of the grains and oilseed supplies. For example, last week, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) lifted its estimates for South Africa's 2021/22 maize production by 2% from July to 15,3 million tonnes. About 7,8 million are white maize, with 7,5 million being yellow maize. A harvest of 15,3 million tonnes is down by 6% from the 2020/21 season crop but well above the 10-year average maize harvest of 12,80 million tonnes and annual domestic consumption of 11,80 million tonnes. And thus, this implies that South Africa will remain a net exporter of maize, which we anticipate to be about 3,5 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing season (note: this marketing year corresponds with the 2021/22 production season).	View Download
30/08/2022	CEC lifts South Africa's 2021/22 maize and soybeans harvest estimate further While our attention is shifting towards the upcoming 2022/23 summer crop season for South Africa, monthly updates from the 2021/22 season are worth monitoring. For example, this afternoon, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) lifted its estimates for South Africa's 2021/22 maize production by 2% from July to 15,0 million tonnes. About 7,6 million are white maize, with 7,4 million being yellow maize. A harvest of 15,0 million tonnes is down by 8% from the 2020/21 season crop but well above the 10-year average maize harvest of 12,80 million tonnes and annual domestic consumption of 11,80 million tonnes. And thus, this implies that South Africa will remain a net exporter of maize, which we anticipate to be about 3,0 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing season (note: this marketing year corresponds with the 2021/22 production season). On 19 August 2022, about 12,0 million tonnes of the expected 15,0 million tonnes harvest had already been delivered to commercial silos. We expect further deliveries to continue in the coming weeks. The weather is favourable, with clear skies over South Africa over the next two weeks.	View Download
01/08/2022	South Africa's 2021/22 maize and soybeans harvest revised up further South Africa's 2021/22 summer crop harvest is near completion, as we approach the new season which begins in two months. Still, there were important revisions brought by the Crop Estimate Committee this past week. For example, the 2021/22 maize harvest was lifted by 0,2% from June to 14,71 million tonnes. About 7,47 million tonnes is white maize, with 7,24 million tonnes being yellow maize. Essentially, this is down by 10% from the 2020/21 season crop but well above the 10-year average maize harvest of 12,80 million tonnes and annual domestic consumption of 11,80 million tonnes.	View Download
28/06/2022	South Africa's 2021/22 summer crop harvest is at decent levels, with soybeans reaching a fresh high South Africa's 2021/22 summer crop harvest is in full swing across the country. The feedback from farmers about the yields they are receiving has been encouraging. Hence, we believe that the data that the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released this afternoon is unlikely to change much over the coming months. The CEC released its fifth production estimate and introduced minor adjustments from the previous month.	View Download
26/04/2022	SA 2021/22 summer crop harvest at decent levels The excessive rains during the 2021/22 season have introduced increased uncertainty about the harvest size and quality of the crop. At the start of the season, there were fears that farmers wouldn't be able to meet the usual area plantings. Still, the pause in the rains in January allowed farmers to replant in areas that had experienced crop damages, and thus we ended up with a decent crop area. The harvest size figures also remain encouraging, although we are still trying to understand the impact of the recent disastrous KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape rains on crops. The figures released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) about South Africa's 2021/22 summer crop harvest probably don't mirror the impact of these rains.	View Download
28/03/2022	SA summer crop production estimates lifted from February levels This afternoon, we received further confirmation that South Africa's summer crop is not as bad as some might have feared at the start of the 2021/22 production season when heavy rains threatened the yields. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee showed overall improvements in most crops production estimates from the February figures.	View Download
02/03/2022	SA 2021/22 summer crop first production estimates better than expectations The start of South Africa's 2021/22 summer crop production season was challenging for farmers and agricultural role players because of excessive rains that delayed plantings in various regions and threatened crop yields prospects. But the past few weeks were calm with reasonably warm weather conditions in much of the country, thus supporting crops and easing concerns about the possibility of smaller yields due to excessive soil moisture.	View Download
14/02/2022	SA 2020/21 final summer crop harvest slightly larger than the previous estimates There was no doubt that South Africa's 2020/21 summer crop harvest would be one of the largest in history following the expansion in area plantings and favourable weather conditions that boosted the yields. Still, the size of the harvest remained tentative as the harvest continued across the country. Only in the second week of February 2022, the Crop Estimates Committee released its final view on the actual size of the 2020/21 summer crop harvest. It is mildly larger than the estimates released in November last year. For example, the 2020/21 maize harvest is 16,3 million tonnes, up by 0,5% from the November 2021 estimate and the second-largest harvest in the history of South Africa. In addition, soybeans 2020/21 final harvest is 1,9 million tonnes, up by 0,4% from November and the largest harvest on record.	View Download
27/01/2022	SA summer crop plantings data paint a more positive picture than many initially feared The excessive rains since the start of South Africa’s 2021/22 summer crop production season in October 2021 raised concerns that farmers might not have been able to till the initially planned area of 4,34 million hectares (up by 3% from the 2020/21 production season). The preliminary plantings data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee proved this point to be accurate. Still, the actual plantings are a relief as many analysts, with ourselves included, thought we would see a much smaller area. Farmers are estimated to have planted 4,21 million hectares, which is 3% less than their intentions at the start of the season. The slight declines are in maize, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. Meanwhile, sunflower seed plantings are up from the initial intentions.	View Download
02/11/2021	Mixed picture on SA's 2021/22 winter crop production forecast Last week, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its third production forecast of the 2021/22 winter crops. There were minimal changes from the previous update of the end of September, with wheat production forecast up by 0,2% to 2,09 million tonnes. Meanwhile, barley, canola, and oats production forecasts were respectively down by 2%, 3%, and 2% from the previous forecast to 348 200 tonnes, 190 000 tonnes, and 80 473 tonnes.	View Download
03/08/2021	SA 2020/21 maize and sorghum production estimates lifted marginally in July Although our focus is shifting towards the 2021/22 production season, which starts in October, we continue to monitor the production updates of South Africa's 2020/21 summer crops. Last week, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its sixth production estimate, reaffirming ample supplies. Most crop estimates were left roughly unchanged from June 2021 production figures except for commercial maize and sorghum, which were lifted by 3% and 5%, to 16,4 million tonnes and 203 980 tonnes, respectively. The non-commercial maize saw a much larger revision of an 8% increase from June 2021 to 636 440 tonnes. This placed South Africa's overall maize production for the 2020/21 season at 17,1 million tonnes. This is up by 8% from the 2019/20 production season and the second-largest harvest on record. Meanwhile, sorghum is up by 29% y/y and has the largest harvest in seven years.	View Download
05/07/2021	SA’s summer crop production forecasts were left roughly unchanged in June 2021’s assessment Last week, the South African Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its fifth production estimates for the 2020/21 season, which left most crop estimates roughly unchanged from the previous assessment in May. This is with the exception of commercial maize, whose forecast was lifted marginally by 0,3% from the previous month to 16,2 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the non-commercial maize saw a much larger revision of an 8% increase from the previous month to 586 650 tonnes. This placed South Africa’s overall maize production for the 2020/21 season at 16,8 million tonnes. This is up by 6% from the 2019/20 production season, and the second-largest harvest on record. Moreover, the groundnuts production estimate was also lifted by 2% from May to 58 900 tonnes (up 18% y/y).	View Download
31/05/2021	SA's summer crop production estimates adjusted upwards Last week, the South African Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) further lifted, mildly, its forecast for 2020/21 maize, soybeans, sunflower seed and sorghum from the April 2021 estimate to 16,2 million tonnes (up 6% y/y – the second-largest harvest on record), 1,9 million tonnes (up 54% y/y, a record harvest), 716 240 tonnes (down 9% y/y) and 195 035 tonnes (up 23% y/y), respectively. Meanwhile, dry beans and groundnut production estimates were left unchanged from April 2021, at 56 577 tonnes (down 13% y/y) and 57 900 tonnes (up 16% y/y), respectively. The broadly large summer grain and oilseeds production estimate this season is on the back of increased area plantings for summer crops and favourable rainfall since the start of the season.	View Download
05/05/2021	SA’s large maize harvest might not lead to a notable decline in prices in the near term Last week, the South African Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) mildly lifted its forecast for 2020/21 maize, soybeans and sorghum from the March 2021 estimate to 16,1 million tonnes (up 5% y/y – the second-largest harvest on record), 1,8 million tonnes (up 44% y/y, a record harvest), and 189 885 tonnes (up 20% y/y), respectively. Meanwhile, sunflower seed and groundnut production estimates were left unchanged from March 2021, at 696 290 tonnes (down 12% y/y) and 57 900 tonnes (up 16% y/y), respectively. The dry beans were the only crop whose estimates were slashed by 9% from March 2021 to 56 577 tonnes (down 13% y/y).	View Download
29/03/2021	SA's 2020/21 summer grain and oilseeds harvest lifted from February estimates Last week, the South African Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) mildly lifted its forecast for 2020/21 summer grain and oilseeds production from the previous month by 1% to 18,7 million tonnes (this compared with 17,6 million tonnes in 2019/20 production season). The upward adjustments were on maize, soybeans and sorghum, whereas sunflower seed, dry bean and groundnut production estimates were revised. If we zoom into significant crops, the 2020/21 maize, soybean and sunflower seed harvests are forecast at 15,9 million tonnes (up 4% y/y, and second-largest harvest on record), 1,9 million tonnes (up 39% y/y, a record harvest), and 712 940 tonnes (down 12% y/y), as illustrated in Exhibit 1.	View Download
30/09/2020	SA set to have the largest wheat harvest in a decade, and largest canola and barley harvest on record This week the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) reaffirmed its view that South Africa’s 2020/21 wheat crop could be the largest in a decade, while the canola and barley harvest could be the largest on record. The CEC lifted all the production forecasts of all the aforementioned crops by 3% each from last month’s levels as favourable rainfall suggests that there could be good yields in several regions. The current estimates suggest that South Africa’s 2020/21 wheat, barley and canola production could increase by 32% y/y, 51% y/y and 33%, respectively, to 2.02 million tonnes, 520 106 tonnes and 126 520 tonnes (Exhibit 1).	View
26/02/2020	SA’s 2019/20 summer crop looks promising This promises to be a good year for South Africa’s agricultural sector, at least from a production front. The data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) show that South Africa’s 2019/20 summer crops production could increase by 26% y/y to 16.8 million tonnes. While this is still the first estimate for this season, with eight more to follow, if it materialises, this could be the second-largest summer crops harvest on record after the 2016/17 crop. The major gains are on maize, soybeans and sunflower seed as illustrated in Exhibit 1.	View Download
29/01/2020	There’s optimism about SA’s 2019/20 summer crop season While South Africa’s 2019/20 summer crop production season started on a negative footing with delayed rainfall across the country, farmers managed to plant the area they intended. This was confirmed by the preliminary plantings data released this afternoon by South Africa’s Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) which shows South Africa’s 2019/20 summer crop area at 3.97 million hectares.1 This is up 1% and 8% from the intentions to plant data released in October 2019 and area planted in 2018/19 season, respectively. There is an improvement in area plantings of all crops with the exception of sorghum and dry beans whose area planting fell by 28% y/y and 13% y/y, respectively.	View Download
24/10/2019	SA farmers optimistic about the 2019/20 production season South Africa’s summer crop farmers are upbeat about the 2019/20 production season as is evident in the farmers’ intentions data released by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) this afternoon. The data showed a potential 7% y/y increase in area plantings to 3.9 million hectares.1 The crops underpinning this potential uptick in area plantings are maize (white and yellow), sunflower seed, soybeans and groundnuts, partly because of relatively attractive domestic market prices. On 23 October 2019, sunflower seed, soybeans, yellow maize and white maize prices were up by 10% y/y, 29% y/y, 17% y/y and 21% y/y, respectively. Meanwhile, sorghum and dry beans hectares could decline notably from the area planted in 2018/19 production season.	View Download
28/05/2019	SA maize harvest estimate lifted by 2% from last month South Africa’s maize supplies for the 2018/19 production year are shaping up better than we previously feared at the beginning of the year when dryness in the western parts of the country led to delayed plantings. Figures released by South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee show that 2018/19 maize harvest could amount to 10.9 million tonnes, which is a 2% increase from last month’s estimate. This was underpinned by an improvement in the white maize production expectation, which is now set to reach 5.5 million tonnes, up by 4% from last month’s estimate on the back of expected better yields in the Free State. The yellow maize harvest was lifted by 1% from last month to 5.4 million tonnes. The harvest process has started in the eastern parts of South Africa, particularly Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal, where over 40% of the area planted under maize had been completed by the 24th of May 2019. The yields generally varied between below-average to average, although the eastern regions received better rainfall than the western areas of the country where the harvest process has not started.	View Download
27/03/2019	SA’s summer grains and oilseeds production estimates lifted marginally South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) lifted its estimates for the country’s 2018/19 grains and oilseeds production by 0.4% from last month to 12.7 million tonnes. There were no adjustments in most commodities’ production estimates with the exception of sorghum which was lowered by 3% from last month, while the maize estimate was lifted marginally, and thus overshowed the decline in sorghum, resulting into an overall increase in the grains and oilseeds estimate (see Figure 1). With that said, the overall grains and oilseeds production estimate is still 16% lower than the 2017/18 harvest due to a reduction in area planted, and expectations of relatively lower yields in some areas. - Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz chief economist	View Download
31/01/2018	Early estimates show a 7% y/y decline in SA’s 2017/18 summer crop plantings South Africa’s 2017/18 initial estimates for summer crop plantings show a 7% year-on-year decline to 3.70 million hectares. White maize, sunflower seed, groundnuts and sorghum plantings are the key reason for this overall downswing. This, in turn, was driven by dry and warm weather conditions experienced in the western parts of South Africa over the past couple of weeks - Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz economist	View Download

Fuel update

Year	Publication
30/03/2022	SA fuel price set to increase further in April On 06 April, South Africa's petrol (95 ULP inland) and diesel (0.05% wholesale inland) prices will likely increase by R1,84 and R2,99 cents per litre, respectively. These increases will put the retail price of petrol at a record R23,44 per litre from the current level of R21,60 per litre. Simultaneously, the wholesale diesel price will be R22,47 per litre from R19,48 in March 2022. The underpinning driver of the fuel price increase is the rising Brent crude oil price on the back of the current geopolitics, disruption in oil production in the Middle East and supply constraints that existed before the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war, amongst other factors.	View Download
02/03/2022	SA fuel prices at a record high in March 2022 This week South Africa's petrol (95 ULP inland) and diesel (0.05% wholesale inland) prices increased by R1,46 cents per litre (c/l) and R1,44 (c/l), respectively. The retail price of petrol is now at a record R21,60 per litre from the current level of R20,14 per litre. Simultaneously, the wholesale diesel price is R19,48 per litre from R18,04 in February 2022 (see Exhibit 1).	View Download
19/10/2021	Rising fuel prices to add pressure on SA's agriculture sector in 2021/22 summer crop planting period The planting season for South Africa's 2021/22 summer grains and oilseeds started positively in the eastern and central regions with favourable rains that improved soil moisture. The weather outlook for the coming months is positive, with prospects of above-normal rainfall, which should support the crop in this new season.1 The one concern that farmers currently have to contend with is the rising input costs. We have recently written about the fertilizer and agrochemicals prices which in October 2021 were over 40% compared with 2020 levels.2 The increasing fuel prices are an additional cost that farmers and agribusinesses currently face.	View Download
24/08/2021	South Africa's fuel prices to remain at higher levels in September 2021 The planting season for South Africa's 2021/22 summer grains and oilseeds begins in October. While the weather outlook is favourable with prospects of a weak La Niña, which should bring above-normal rainfall, there are concerns about the rising input costs. We have recently written about the fertilizer and agrochemicals prices which are over 30% higher than in 2020.1 The additional costs to farmers and agribusiness are the higher fuel prices.	View Download
16/02/2021	Fuel price increase on the cards in March 2021 While we are still early in the month and more data is yet to be available, the Central Energy Fund's preliminary estimates suggest that South Africa could experience another increase in fuel prices. Petrol (95 ULP Inland) and Diesel (0.05% Wholesale Inland) prices could increase by 59 cents per litre (c/l) and 45 (c/l) respectively, on 03 March 2021. This adjustment means the retail price of petrol could rise to R16,26 per litre from the current level of R15,67 per litre. Simultaneously, the wholesale diesel price could increase to R14,03 per litre from R13,58 per litre in February 2021. This will be the highest level for petrol since December 2019, while for diesel it's the highest level since March 2020.	View Download
18/01/2018	UPDATE: SA fuel prices set to decline in February 2018 After a positive start to the year with a marginal decline in fuel prices, February 2018 could bring a further reduction in fuel prices, thanks to the stronger domestic currency. It is still early to be certain about the scale, but the current estimates suggest that prices of petrol and diesel could fall by 3% and 1%, respectively, from January 2018 levels - Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz economist	View Download

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