Article
SA summer crop harvest set to recover robustly in 2024-25
Published: 27/03/2025
South Africa's agriculture is recovering after a challenging mid-summer drought that led to significant crop losses in the 2023-24 season. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) 's data released this afternoon paints an encouraging picture of this new season's summer crop production prospects. For example, the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production is forecast at 18,0 million tonnes, up 5% from the previous month's estimate and 16% of the prior season's crop. This comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.
- South Africa's agriculture is recovering after a
challenging mid-summer drought that led to significant crop losses in the
2023-24 season. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) 's data released this
afternoon paints an encouraging picture of this new season's summer crop
production prospects. For example, the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds
production is forecast at 18,0 million tonnes, up 5% from the previous
month's estimate and 16% of the prior season's crop. This comprises maize,
sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.
- The expected yield improvements after favourable rains
underscore the better harvest prospects. The overall area planting is 4,4
million hectares, roughly unchanged from the last season. Provided this is
a second production estimate and possibly still does not fully account for
the gains of the favourable weather conditions in recent weeks, we could
see further upside revision in the coming months, even if mildly. After
all, there are eight more production estimates to follow monthly.
- A closer look at the data shows the second maize
production estimate at 14,6 million tonnes, up 5% month-on-month (m-o-m)
and 13% year-on-year (y/y). About 7,7 million tonnes is white maize (up
26% y/y), and 6,9 million tonnes is yellow maize (up 1% y/y). The
difference is caused by the area switch, with white maize taking a more
significant area and the yield expectations. The prospects of a better
maize season have already added downward pressure on prices, which
currently trade below last year's. Importantly, these forecasts are well
above South Africa's annual maize needs of about 11,8 million tonnes,
which implies that, if the crop materializes, South Africa will remain a
net exporter of maize.
- Regarding oilseeds, soybean harvest is estimated at 2,4
million tonnes, up 29% y/y. This is on the back of anticipated better
yields, as the area is roughly the same as the past season. Moreover, the
sunflower seed harvest is forecast at 770 500 tonnes, up 22% y/y,
benefiting from expected higher yields.
- The groundnut harvest is estimated at 66 929 tonnes (up
29% y/y), sorghum production is estimated at 137 435 tonnes (up 40% y/y),
and dry beans harvest is at 79 007 tonnes (up 56%). The base effects also
boost the significant annual increases given the poor harvest we recorded
in 2023-24 during the drought.
- Overall, this is shaping to be a better agricultural
season and a year of recovery in the sector. Indeed, there may be regions
that aren't fully recovering and suffered from erratic weather. Still, the
national picture is solid.
- From a consumer perspective, the softening commodity
prices on the back of the expected large harvest paints a comforting food
inflation path for the year's second half. The next quarter, specifically
for grain-related products in the food inflation basket, may still reflect
the effects of the recent higher prices of tight grain supplies at the
start of this year, which is before we get the new season deliveries.
