Published: 27/02/2018
South Africa’s grain and oilseed market could be well supplied in the 2018/19 marketing season owing to expectations of relatively large maize and soybean harvest. The National Crop Estimates Committee placed its first production estimates for maize at 12.2 million tonnes, which is well above our estimate of 11.2 million tonnes, albeit having declined by 27% from the 2016/17 production season – this is still above the annual consumption of 10.5 million tonnes - Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz economist
South Africa’s grain and oilseed market could be well supplied in the 2018/19 marketing season owing to expectations of relatively large maize and soybean harvest. The National Crop Estimates Committee placed its first production estimates for maize at 12.2 million tonnes, which is well above our estimate of 11.2 million tonnes, albeit having declined by 27% from the 2016/17 production season – this is still above the annual consumption of 10.5 million tonnes. Soybean harvest is estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, a record harvest. Admittedly, weather conditions have improved over the summer crop regions but the maize production estimates came as a surprise considering the decline in area planted.
Chart 1: South Africa’s 2017/8 first production estimates Source: CEC, Agbiz Research
[1] See South African Weather Service Seasonal Climate Watch, 28 January 2018.
Enquiries:
Wandile Sihlobo (wandile@agbiz.co.za)
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