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• Following our communication over the weekend about the U.S. import tariffs, there has been further communication that changed the events a bit. The U.S. President has announced that his administration will now impose a 15% tariff on all imports, seemingly replacing the previously higher tariffs that were before the U.S. Supreme Court. This also changes the earlier communication that there would be a 10% additional tariff on the “Liberation Day Tariffs”, and implies that there will now be lower tariffs.

• If this is a new possibility, then it will bode well for South Africa. The 15% tariff will be a great relief from the 30% we have been struggling with over the past few months. Given the recent extension of the Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA), South Africa will not face an additional MFN tariff of 3.4%. The new tariff, effective tomorrow, February 24, 2026, should be 15%, unless the U.S. administration provides further communication to the contrary.

• Of course, there remains profound uncertainty about these issues as the U.S. administration seeks to explore ways to maintain the higher tariffs we faced before the Supreme Court’s judgment. For us in South Africa’s agriculture, our competitors in the U.S. market faced much lower tariffs, around 10%, and managed to take our market share in some products. With the new 15% tariff possibility, we will likely be competitive in the U.S. market again.

• The U.S. remains an important market for South Africa, accounting for about 4% of our agricultural exports. The main exported products include citrus, berries, grapes, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts. At the time of the higher “Liberation Day Tariffs”, some SA agricultural exporters took advantage of the 90-day pause on the higher tariffs in the second quarter of 2025 and exported more volume than usual during the second quarter. After this pause, we saw some cooling in exports in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Notably, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. decreased by 11% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, at US$144 million. In the last quarter, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. fell sharply by 39% to US$81 million.

• From an annual perspective, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. in 2025 totalled US$504 million, down 3% from the previous year. This slight annual decline doesn’t suggest that the previous 30% “Liberation Day tariffs” didn’t have a negative impact on our agricultural sector; we benefited from substantial exports in the second quarter.

• We believe that in 2026, it may be better to keep the 15% tariff in place for some time. Again, there remains profound uncertainty in the U.S., and the administration continues to engage in high-frequency communication that has a profound impact on businesses.