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A challenging path ahead for South Africa’s agriculture?
The heatwaves and veldfires in various parts of Europe and the Americas are worrying. We are not only watching these to understand their impact on agriculture and households, but also whether they signal what lies ahead for Southern Africa in the 2026-27 summer season.
We expect to be heading towards an El Niño drought period. This is already worrying for the farming sector. Some of us have been finding comfort in the realisation that we have higher water levels in the dams, which are key to irrigating fruits and vegetables.
We are also comforted by the fact that there is better soil moisture following a much longer rainy summer season in the 2025-26 season.
But looking at what is happening in Europe and the Americas, one worries that these “comforting factors” may not be sufficient to help us sail through the 2026-27 season smoothly.
A heatwave would be damaging to the farming prospects in the upcoming season.
I am not suggesting that we should be alarmed. But we should look at what is unfolding in the northern hemisphere and assess what such weather prospects would mean for us if we are already in an El Niño period.
Of course, from a consumer level, none of these issues will be immediate concerns. We have ample grain supplies that will carry us through to the second quarter of 2027.
But the concerns arise from the second quarter of 2027 onwards, which will be the period when we would ordinarily start to benefit from a new-season crop.
So, as we proceed with this year, we need to think deeply about the 2026-27 season ahead. We are likely heading towards a challenging path.
--Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz)
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