We are two months away from the start of South Africa's 2024/25 maize production season. The focus in the industry is still on finalizing the harvest of the current crop. But I was delighted that the International Grains Council sees South Africa's maize harvest bouncing back by 20% year-on-year in the next season to 16,5 million tonnes (see the table). They base their view on the expected La Nina rains in the next season and the belief that farmers would plant the typical area for maize (around 2,4 million hectares or so). 

While we haven't come up with any estimates and will only do so when we have a sense of the area plantings, the International Grains Council view is aligned with what some of us believe, assuming the expected La Nina materializes.

In such a season, South Africa's maize exports increase again, which would be broadly positive for the agricultural trade balance. These data are also positive for food inflation path going into 2025. 

Again, we are still a long way from the start of the 2024/25 season, where farmers in South Africa's eastern regions will only start planting in October and western areas in November 2024. Still, such optimism from influential observers of agricultural markets, such as the International Grains Council, is always uplifting. 

Let's keep our eyes on the current season and hope and pray the La Nina rains materialize (in a favourable way) – some indications or forecasts are promising such eventuality.

Table 1: Global maize production prospects

Source: International Grains Council