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An end to La Niña rains in South African agriculture
We are at the tail-end of the 2025-026 La Niña rain period. From April 2026, the weather is likely to return to normal. In Southern Africa, this will be a typical drier period as we approach the winter season.
The La Niña rains during the summer season have helped support crop production. Early crop estimates point to a better harvest for the 2025-26 season. For example, South Africa’s 2025-26 maize production estimate is 16.13 million tonnes, down 3% from the previous season but well above the long-term average production.
Importantly, this expected harvest is well above South Africa’s annual maize usage of 12.0 million tonnes. The crop is now at the pollination stage in various regions of the country, and these regions will continue to benefit from the rains.
But from the end of March 2026 onwards, the ideal weather conditions are warm and dry, which will support the crop’s maturation and ensure robust quality.
While it is still early to take a firm view, the early prospects suggest that in the next 2026-27 summer crop season, which starts in October 2026, we may transition into an El Niño season.
If this becomes a reality, we may have a tough season ahead after a few years of favourable weather conditions. Again, this is still very early; we will likely have a clearer view of this possibility around July 2026.
For now, what remains comforting is that weather conditions are favourable for the current 2025-26 season, and the rain may ease at the end of this month, permitting better crop maturation.
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