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The Costs Of Fear About Fear, And The Surge In Fertiliser Prices
It’s probably fair to assume we will get a clearer view of fertiliser supplies for the 2026-27 summer crop season in South Africa by around June. Indeed, we will be nearing the start of the season then, as plantings begin in October 2026.
Currently, we see price surges driven by fears of supply constraints. But we can’t be certain that supplies will remain constrained for some time, as we don’t know when the war will end or when logistics will clear to move the fertilisers.
Farmers globally, and here in South Africa, are paying higher fertiliser prices ahead of the start of the 2026-27 winter crop season, driven by the “fear” of supply constraints.
It is likely fair to assume we have some fertiliser supplies for now, but the uncertainty about the path ahead, combined with higher shipping costs, is driving up prices, among other factors.
Of course, domestically, we also don’t have much room for the government to cushion farmers in such times.
The challenges we are facing now are lower commodity prices and surging input costs, which are putting farmers in a tough financial position.
We are stuck with rising farm input costs because of “fear about fear”.
-wandile
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