We are still grappling with the harvest of the 2024-25 maize season in South Africa, which is quite decent but presents some quality challenges because of the excessive rains. As of July 11, farmers have delivered around 56% of the expected commercial harvest of 14.8 million tonnes.

The quality is a significant challenge for white maize, but less so for yellow maize. For example, the white maize that we categorise as “WM1”, the first grade, accounts for 66% of the delivered maize compared with over 90% in past seasons. While yellow maize of the first grade, “YM1”, accounts for approximately 88% of the delivered maize. The prolonged rains, which continued through to the end of April, posed a challenge.

While this won’t change the view that we have decent supplies and keep food prices moderate in the coming months, it does mean we may see financial pressures on the maize farmers.

We are now at the tail end of this season, and the 2025-26 season is expected to begin in mid-October. We haven’t been thinking much about this season, as our minds have been mainly on the current crop and the harvest progress.

However, I was delighted to see that in its latest report, the International Grains Council is quite bullish about the upcoming season for South Africa, forecasting a maize crop of 16 million tonnes. These figures encompass both commercial and non-commercial maize. They base this, among other things, on the favourable weather outlook and the belief that farmers will plant in the typical area. 

We are still in the early days and have yet to see how much area farmers will plant, as well as the impact of possible higher input costs. However, I found this uplifting forecast worth highlighting.

Of course, when the new season starts, we will closely monitor the developments and revisit these figures. The essential message they convey is that the path ahead for food price inflation in South Africa remains encouraging, with indications of continued moderation.

Email: wandile@agbiz.co.za