A lot has happened in the agricultural markets over the past few weeks. First, Russia decided not to renew the Black Sea Grain Deal, which is essential to facilitating exports out of Ukraine and has contributed to a decline in global grain prices. Second, India has banned the exports of non-basmati white and broken rice on fears of inflation. Both these events have been quite disruptive to the grain trade. But a few days before these announcements, I wrote a piece mainly distilling the 2023/24 global grain production forecasts, which I felt were solid and still do. I feel the need to post the article here as its core message is that there are a lot of grains and oilseeds in the world. So, we see the price reaction mainly because of the events I mentioned above, not the tight supplies. So, on July 12, 2023, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly flagship report, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The report's focus has shifted from the 2022/23 season to the 2023/24 season, currently underway in the northern hemisphere and starting around October in the southern hemisphere. Listen to full Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo.
Published: 31 July 2023