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EP36 - 2026 Outlook Unrevised, Despite Risks

This week on AgriView, we unpack a season of sharp contrasts in South African agriculture. While the 2025/26 production year still holds strong promise—thanks to generally good rainfall and increased plantings across major grains and oilseeds—key risks are coming into sharper focus. Ongoing challenges around foot-and-mouth disease, delays in vaccine procurement, and the complexity of rolling out vaccinations (especially in rural areas) remain a serious concern for livestock farmers. At the same time, extreme weather patterns are reshaping the outlook: damaging floods in parts of Limpopo and Mpumalanga, relative stability in fruit regions, and worrying dryness across central to southwestern parts of the Eastern Cape highlight just how uneven this season has been. We also take a closer look at the numbers behind farmer confidence. Area plantings for summer grains and oilseeds are up, with maize, soybeans and sunflower seed leading the gains - pointing to the potential for another abundant harvest if favourable rains persist through to March. Sugarcane producers are also benefiting from La Niña conditions, while lower feed prices are offering some relief to livestock farmers under pressure. For consumers, the message remains reassuring: food supplies are safe, and the outlook still supports moderating food price inflation. In short, the promising outlook highlighted early in January still holds true! As always, AgriView brings you these insights with the support of our partners at Nedbank. If you’re new here, subscribe and join us every Thursday for a clear-eyed view of what’s shaping agriculture in South Africa.

Published: 12 February 2026